354
FXUS62 KGSP 260550
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
150 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY AROUND AS A RESULT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1241 AM TUESDAY: FAIR WEATHER OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHES OF CIRRUS
MOVING OVERHEAD, SOME THICKER UPSTREAM, SO LOW TEMPS MIGHT NOT GET
AS COOL AS WE THOUGHT. NO NEED TO GIVE UP ON THE LOW TEMP FCST,
THOUGH. THE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL HELP TO PREVENT THE USUAL FOG
FROM DEVELOPING IN PLACES. NO CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...THUS BEGINS OUR EARLY AUTUMN PREVIEW! OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, WE WILL REMAIN AT THE BOTTOM OF A SEASONALLY DEEP LONG
WAVE UPPER TROF SUPPORTING SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS. SEEMS LIKE EVERY YEAR AROUND THIS TIME,
WE GET A COUPLE OF DAYS THAT REMIND US THAT THE SUMMER WILL COME
TO AN END BEFORE TOO LONG, AND THIS IS THAT DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE AROUND TEN DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL UNDER SOME BRIGHT
SUNSHINE, BUT IT SHOULD FEEL EVEN BETTER WITH THE DEWPOINTS STAYING
IN THE MIDDLE 50S MAKING IT FEEL DRY. SAVOR IT, BECAUSE WE PROBABLY
AREN'T DONE WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY JUST YET. FOR TONIGHT...YOU
MIGHT CALL IT COOL...AS LOW TEMPS WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THAT MEANS DOWN INTO THE 50S IN MANY PLACES OUTSIDE THE
MTNS, AND INTO THE 40S AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000 FEET. NOT QUITE
PUMPKIN SPICE TIME, BUT GETTING THERE. IT WON'T BE LONG NOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 123 AM EDT TUESDAY: BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND ANOMALOUSLY
COOLER THICKNESS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY,
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND SWING ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW ALOFT VEERS MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING FOR A WEAK MOISTURE FLUX. A BAROCLINIC
ZONE LOOKS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND DEEP
SOUTH, BUT SHOULD KEEP BETTER QPF RESPONSE SOUTH OF THE CWFA AS A
WEAKLY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. CAN'T
RULE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODEL GUIDANCE KEEP THE BEST RAINFALL
CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION,
BUT THAT'S ABOUT THE EXTENT OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN 6-12 DEGREES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING COMFORTABLE THROUGHOUT IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 148 AM EDT TUESDAY: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE GRADUALLY LOOSENING UP
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY
TRENDED DRIER OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS
SHUNTED SOUTH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGIONS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. STILL SOME SIGNAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATER INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT NOT VERY PROMISING THIS FAR OUT, ESPECIALLY WITH
AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS AND NOTHING SYNOPTICALLY THAT SUGGESTS
OTHERWISE. ANOMALOUSLY COOLER THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER
THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE EXTENDED, WITH NOT MUCH OF
A SIGN THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF AUGUST. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO STAY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG
TIME, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
OVERHEAD AND EXTENDING UPSTREAM TO THE WEST BY SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE VALLEY FOG/STRATUS FROM FORMING, IN
THEORY. THE HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY WITH WIND STAYING MOSTLY NW TO N. ONCE
THE HIGH CLOUDS THIN OUT IN THE MORNING, WE COULD POP UP A FEW
HIGH-BASED STRATOCU, THEN WINDS GET A BIT WEIRD IN THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROF COULD BRING THE DIRECTION AROUND
TO WSW ACROSS THE UPSTATE. ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING, SHOULD
BE CLEAR SKY WITH A LIGHT NW WIND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WNW.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. FOG
AND/OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM
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