393
FXUS62 KGSP 261738
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH SOME RAIN MAY FALL
OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT TUESDAY: A REFRESHING BURST OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TODAY AS THE CWA EXPERIENCE SOME MUCH ANTICIPATED RELIEF FROM THE
SUMMERTIME MUGGY SOUP. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONUS REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE THAT REMAINS
PARKED OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEAR TERM AND BEYOND. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN MUCH DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AND
SUPPRESSES RAIN CHANCES. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS ARE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THE CLOUD DECK CLEAR UP, MOST PLACES EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH THE LOW 80S. WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY, LOWS
DIP INTO THE 50S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 40S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, RINSE AND REPEAT THE COOL, DRY
FORECAST. MOISTURE REMAINS STINTED AND RAIN CHANCES ARE ONCE AGAIN
NULL, KEEPING THE FORECAST QUIET AND COOL.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF MIDDAY TUE: DEEP TROUGH IS THE CONSISTENT FEATURE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THRU THE SHORT TERM. THE INITIAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ROTATES OFF THE EAST COAST WED NIGHT, WITH SFC HIGH FOLLOWING AND
BEING CENTERED EAST OF THE CWA BY EARLY THURSDAY. STALLED BOUNDARY
INITIALLY WILL BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SFC HIGH, BUT WITH WEAK LOW TO MIDLEVEL WAA SETTING UP AS A RESULT OF
THE PROGRESS OF THE HIGH, IT MAY EFFECTIVELY BE BROUGHT BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL NC. THIS RESULTS IN
MARGINALLY WARMER TEMPS WED NIGHT AND THU ALONG WITH SOME FORECAST
CLOUD COVER. ANOTHER VORT LOBE ROTATES INTO THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY,
PROVIDING WEAK DPVA WHICH LEADS SOME GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP PRECIP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY IN THE THU NIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, CONSULTED
MODEL PROFILES ARE LARGELY VERY DRY ALOFT AND MUCAPE IS SMALL AND
SHALLOW, SO NO BETTER THAN ABOUT 25% POPS ARE FORECAST. A SUBTLE COLD
FRONT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. CLOUD COVER DECLINES
FRIDAY AND WEAK DOWNSLOPE FLOW OCCURS. ACCORDINGLY TEMPS TREND 2-4
DEGREES WARMER, BRINGING MAXES BACK TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL--HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND
PIEDMONT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM TUE: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CONTINENTAL
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY, THOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THAT DAY. TEMPS DO TREND COOLER SUN AND MON.
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL BE ANOTHER VORT LOBE OR WEAK SHORTWAVE.
THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS, AND
PARTICULARLY WHETHER AND/OR WHERE THE WAVE INDUCES A WEAK SFC LOW
ALONG THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SUCH
DEVELOPMENT WOULD ENHANCE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE CWA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY, WHICH MAY ACCELERATE ANY COOLING TREND, AND POTENTIALLY
BRING LIGHT WRAPAROUND PRECIP TO THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. SOME DEGREE
OF EASTERLY FLOW LOOKS TO SET UP AROUND THE INCOMING HIGH EVEN IF THE
COASTAL LOW DOESN'T DEVELOP (AS IN THE 26/12Z GFS SOLUTION). THAT MAY
PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR WEAK MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SAT AND SUN, POSSIBLY
EVEN MON. THE NET RESULT IS FOR SMALL POPS SATURDAY NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT AND OVER THE SMOKIES/BALSAMS AND VICINITY, PLUS THE
GA/SC ZONES, AND ON SUNDAY-MONDAY, SLIGHT-CHANCE VALUES IN THE
PIEDMONT AND CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. SKINNY CAPE IS FORECAST EACH
DAY SO A CHANCE OF GARDEN-VARIETY THUNDER IS ALSO INCLUDED.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVERHEAD. A STREAM OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE KEEPING CIGS
BKN/FEW AROUND 070-090. THIS SHOULD START TO CLEAR UP THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES SHOULD BECOME SCT/SKC FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT AT MOST SITES EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP A G15 FOR KAVL THROUGH 23Z BECOMING
DIMINISHING. AS USUAL, BR COULD FORM IN THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR KAVL SO DID NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT A SIMILAR SETUP AS THE WEATHER
REMAINS QUIET AND WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CP
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