246
FXUS62 KGSP 270542
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1233 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: SOME HIGH-BASED STRATOCU WAS NOTED
EAST OF THE MTNS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT OTHERWISE IT WAS CLEAR
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FCST AREA. SHOULD REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT
WITH SEASONALLY COOL TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS, PERHAPS EVEN LOW
ENOUGH IN THE MTN VALLEYS TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING.
SUPER QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WE REMAIN UNDER A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT UNDER A LARGE
UPPER TROF. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE SUPERIMPOSED ON THIS FLOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROF AND OVERHEAD LATER TODAY, BRINGING THE CENTER OF
SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY, BUT THE DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE
RH DOWN TO A VERY COMFORTABLE 35PCT. GUIDANCE WAS UNDERCUT A BIT
TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. AS FOR LOWS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE A BIT
OF A WARMER REBOUND BECAUSE OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT,
BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 103 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE HIGH PARKED OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO START THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVE WITHIN THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND HELP TO CREATE A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST. WHETHER OR NOT ANYTHING CAN GET GOING AT
THE SURFACE TO HELP PRODUCE ANY RAINFALL ACROSS THE CWFA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAKLY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. NOT VERY EXCITED
ABOUT THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HAVE
TO OVERCOME A VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIR MASS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
OF THE CWFA AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, CLOSER IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE, BUT SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY FRIDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA AND DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN. TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY REBOUND FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 139 AM EDT WEDNESDAY: UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH MAY END UP
SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK. TRENDS ARE WETTER FOR THIS WEEKEND, BUT LOOK DRIER BY THE
END OF THE EXTENDED. WITH ANOMALOUSLY LOW THICKNESSES IN PLACE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: APART FROM SOME FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS,
THOUGH NOT RIGHT AT KAVL, SHOULD BE VFR. NOTE THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY OF STEAM FOG AROUND THE LARGER LAKES/RESERVOIRS AROUND
DAYBREAK, BUT THE WIND WILL HAVE TO GO MORE CALM OVER A LARGER
AREA THAN IT HAS SO FAR. FOR TODAY, MAYBE SOME MORE HIGH-BASED
STRATOCU, BUT OTHERWISE JUST A LIGHT N OR NE WIND. MORE MID/HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT, SO CONFIDENCE IN MTN/VALLEY
FOG IS LOWER. WIND SHOULD GO LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MTNS.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM
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