568
FXUS62 KGSP 280551
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND THAT MAY RESULT
IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1227 AM EDT THURSDAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A THICKENING
VEIL OF CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WNW AT THIS EARLY HOUR, PROBABLY
AIDED BY SOME WEAK MID/UPPER FORCING FROM A JET STREAK AND SHORT
WAVE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE EASTERN TROF. THERE REMAINS A HIGH-BASED
STRATOCU CLOUD DECK UNDERNEATH ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THAT
IS BEING OBSCURED. THE INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF
FIVE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK AND SHORT WAVE SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD
TODAY WHILE THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, BUT WITH MORE CLOUDS THAT ARE
VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUDS WILL ACT TO KEEP HIGH TEMPS
CLOSE TO WHAT WE'VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS IN SPITE OF MODIFICATION
OF THE AIR MASS. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL DROP DOWN AND SHARPEN
THE UPPER TROF TONIGHT, BUT THE FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE PAST WELL TO OUR NORTH. INSTEAD, WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A
WEAK REMNANT SFC HIGH BETWEEN THIS NORTHERN UNSETTLEDNESS AND A
WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE RESULT WILL
BE ANOTHER NIGHT OF FAIR WEATHER, BUT WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY A
BIT HIGHER, THOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 129 AM EDT THURSDAY: BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CHURNS NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER, FAVORING THE QUEBEC
SIDE. DEEP LAYER WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY WILL INDUCE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND KEEP THE SENSIBLE WEATHER QUIET. WEAK DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT AND CLEARER SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES UPTICK A FEW
DEGREES ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES TOWARD AND
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF COAST WILL GRADUALLY SUPPORT BETTER
UPGLIDE AND FETCH A WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR SATURDAY AS
ANY REAL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY ANTECEDENT
AIR MASS. EVENTUALLY, ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SECURE THE WIN AS
THE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SHOWERS TO GENERATE SOMETIME
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIFFER ON TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE, BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
QPF RESPONSE FORM DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL TIMEFRAME SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION ARE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE A DEGREE OR
TWO ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY KIND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT THURSDAY: BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS LINGERS
THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE PERIOD AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL LOWS AND A DEEP DIGGING JET
STREAK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AT THE SURFACE INCLUDES A WEDGE-LIKE
CONFIGURATION AND THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
GULF COAST REGION. THE TWO WILL BATTLE IT OUR DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND PROVIDE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP MONDAY BEFORE
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST FAVORS A SOUTHERLY
DRIFT. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE KEYING IN ON A STRONGER COLD
FRONT JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS
IN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, BUT THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY QUIET AHEAD OF THAT FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY WITH BETTER CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
POPS. HOWEVER, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THEREAFTER AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AND LESS CLOUD COVER OVERALL.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE'S ALWAYS A SMALL CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AT
KAVL AT DAYBREAK AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT WITH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY ENOUGH TO OMIT. WIND SHOULD
STAY LIGHT/VARIABLE THRU MOST OF THE MORNING. TOWARD MIDDAY,
THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN OUT A BIT AND THE WIND SHOULD COME
AROUND TO THE S OR SW AND LIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS SHOULD GO BACK TO LIGHT/VARIABLE WITH
SUNSET. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, MAY RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT,
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM
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