643
FXUS62 KGSP 111753
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY: THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL
CHURNS ACROSS THE NE. SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD, RESULTING IN A SMALL UPTICK IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
MOISTURE REMAINS SHUNTED AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BE THE
DOMINANT AIR MASS. THIS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY LOWER AND RAIN CHANCES
NULL. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TIMEFRAME. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE FAR WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW. FOR THIS, NO MENTIONABLE POP
(<14%) THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE N/NE TODAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE QUASI-CAD,
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE NC PIEDMONT, SHOULD BE JUST BELOW
NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE COOL UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR THE
MORE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 141 PM EDT THURSDAY: LINGERING TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE
MIDST OF PUSHING ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING EAST AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DRY. A SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN SLIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS,
WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD AND A WIND SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL UPTICK FROM SATURDAY
TO SUNDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY,
WHILE RISING TO A TICK OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS SHOULD BE AROUND A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL
THANKS TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 151 PM EDT THURSDAY: MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, BUT HAVE NOW TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS. IN RETURN, THIS COULD BRING SOME SUPPORT FOR
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT WITH INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN UPDATES, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD LIKELY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES AS
WELL SINCE WITHOUT THE UPPER LOW, A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS COULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WOULD REALLY SOAR FOR THIS OF THE YEAR. A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY,
LEADING TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE NBM HAS PICKED UP ON THE INCONSISTENT RUN TO
RUN TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE LATEST TREND SHOWS TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL RATHER THAN A CATEGORY BELOW OR ABOVE.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AT MOST SITES. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD AND KEEPS CONDITIONS
QUIET. A FEW AFTERNOON CU HAVE DEVELOPED AND SHOULD CLEAR UP NEAR
SUNSET AT KCLT. OVERNIGHT, THE USUAL BR COULD AFFECT VSBY AT KAVL
AND BRING IN MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE 13Z. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
BECOME MORE NE THROUGH THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT, A FEW SITES GO CALM
AND SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. WINDS STAY N/NE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. NO OTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, EXCEPT
FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...CP
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