907
FXUS62 KGSP 112345
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN UNTIL AT LEAST MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 734 PM EDT THURSDAY: ANOTHER QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. RADAR SHOWS AN ISOLATED SHOWER THAT DRIFTED SOUTH FROM
JACKSON COUNTY NC DOWN TO THE AREA WHERE NC/SC/GA MEET, BUT THAT
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. TEMP/DEWPT WERE IN OK SHAPE. NO
BIG CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...THE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES AS AN UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE STILL CHURNS ACROSS
THE NE. MOISTURE REMAINS SHUNTED AND MUCH DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
BE THE DOMINANT AIR MASS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE FAR WESTERN NC
MOUNTAINS. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT OUT OF THE N/NE
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE NORTHEAST FLOW, TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
NC PIEDMONT, SHOULD BE JUST BELOW NORMAL. OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE
COOL UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 141 PM EDT THURSDAY: LINGERING TROUGH AXIS WILL BE IN THE
MIDST OF PUSHING ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING EAST AND OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, KEEPING SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DRY. A SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN SLIPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS,
WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ONLY BRING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD AND A WIND SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL UPTICK FROM SATURDAY
TO SUNDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY,
WHILE RISING TO A TICK OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS BOTH NIGHTS SHOULD BE AROUND A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW NORMAL
THANKS TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 151 PM EDT THURSDAY: MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, BUT HAVE NOW TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS. IN RETURN, THIS COULD BRING SOME SUPPORT FOR
MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS,
BUT WITH INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN UPDATES, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WOULD LIKELY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON TEMPERATURES AS
WELL SINCE WITHOUT THE UPPER LOW, A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS COULD EXPAND FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES
WOULD REALLY SOAR FOR THIS OF THE YEAR. A LOT OF FACTORS AT PLAY,
LEADING TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE NBM HAS PICKED UP ON THE INCONSISTENT RUN TO
RUN TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE LATEST TREND SHOWS TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL RATHER THAN A CATEGORY BELOW OR ABOVE.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT MOST SITES, THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN BEING KAVL WHERE
VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RESTRICTIONS FAILED
TO REACH THE AVL AIRPORT THIS PAST MORNING, BUT THE OVERALL SETUP
CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL DOWN
TO VLIFR, SO A SIMILAR APPROACH TO LAST EVENING WAS TAKEN. WILL GO
WITH A PREVAILING IFR AND TEMPORARY LIFR, THEN AMEND FROM THERE. THE
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING, IF THEY DEVELOP
AT ALL. OTHERWISE, A FEW HIGH-BASED STRATOCU ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF HEATING. WIND SHOULD STAY LIGHT NE.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, EXCEPT
FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...CP/PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...PM
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