143
FXUS62 KGSP 120605
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN INTO THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOSTLY SUNNY, DRY, AND WARM AGAIN TODAY
2) MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD WHILE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SFC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AROUND AND ALLOW NE'LY FLOW TO CONTINUE
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR
YESTERDAY'S THANKS TO ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON
TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S,
WITH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE AFTERNOON TEMPS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP EACH MORNING,
DIMINISHING AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. LOWS EACH MORNING WILL END
UP NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY: AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS CENTERED ALONG
THE EASTERN COASTLINE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE MS VALLEY BUT THE NORTHERN PORTION BEGINS TIPPING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS KEEPS A NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
OR NEAR THE AREA KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
SATURDAY RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. LOWS AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT RISE A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY: THE GFS IS ALONE IN THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS IN KEEPING A DRY FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE MEDIUM
RANGE. IT DOES DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BUT
KEEPS THEM WELL OF THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OUR AREA. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEVELOP THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS
OFF THE SC COAST ON MONDAY AND MOVE THEM WEST INTO THE CAROLINAS
DEVELOPING AN EASTERLY FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE AND PRECIP INTO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY, KEEPING IT IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE MOVING
THEM NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING AS WELL. THE
GUIDANCE BLEND HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD, AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW GIVEN THE MODEL
TRENDS. HIGHS NOW START OUT NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY DROPPING TO AS
MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. LOWS
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AROUND NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS MAY MAKE IT TO KAVL AGAIN THIS MORNING SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO FOR LIFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOG
AND STRATUS WILL MIX OUT AFTER DAYBREAK. SOME VFR CU MAY DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
N/NE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT KAVL
WILL BE MAINLY N/NNW THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING SE
AFTER DAYBREAK AND THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS AT KAVL WILL
GO LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND MOSTLY VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUTSIDE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page