182
FXUS62 KGSP 130559
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MAY BRING
RAIN INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY AGAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLY
RETURNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
2) MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM AGAIN TODAY
3) MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED EACH MORNING
NOT MUCH CHANGE REGARDING THE PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER
TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITS
TIGHT OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS AROUND, ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY RETURN THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION
REMAINS LOW SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
REBOUND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH TEMPS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP EACH MORNING,
DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DAYTIME MIXING DEVELOPS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SATURDAY: AN UPPER LOW SPINS ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST OR COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF SHORE OR
NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA
EMANATING FROM A CENTER OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST
AREA DRY EACH DAY, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY, DROP A DEGREE OR TWO ON MONDAY. LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT RISE TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SATURDAY: THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY FOR THE MEDIUM
RANGE CONTINUES. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST ON TUESDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HOWEVER A DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION AND RESULTING SENSIBLE
WEATHER REMAINS. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE LOW OFF
SHORE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR OUR AREA. THE ECWMF HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND
FAR ENOUGH FOR AN EASTERLY FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
INTO THE AREA. THE CANADIAN WAS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT NOW HAS
THE LOW FARTHER EAST, BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF OUR
AREA, BUT LESS QPF THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS SHOW PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA BUT ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.
THE GUIDANCE BLEND KEEPS MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE POP OVER THE AREA
WITH SOME CHANCE POP OVER THE NC PIEDMONT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THIS
CONTINUES TO BE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TUE AND WED. SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POP LINGERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THU AND FRI AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE OH
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
MORNING (CLOSER TO DAYBREAK FOR KAVL). MAINTAINED THE TEMPO AT KAVL
FOR IFR VSBYS AND SOME SCATTERED LOW STRATUS. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
WILL LIFT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER DAYBREAK. VFR CU FIELD SHOULD RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED, MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
AT KAVL AS CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON WHETHER A STRAY SHOWER WILL
TRACK DIRECTLY OVER THE TERMINAL. WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MAINLY NE THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE TOGGLING MORE
ENE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER
TODAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, RANGING FROM 5-9 KTS. WINDS EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL THEN TOGGLE BACK TO A MORE N/NNE DIRECTION LATE THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHILE BECOMING LIGHT. WINDS AT KAVL WILL BE
LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE TOGGLING MORE NE AFTER
DAYBREAK AND EVENTUALLY MORE E/ENE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. WINDS AT KAVL WILL THEN GO LIGHT AND VRB TO CALM AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY DRY AND VFR THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, OUTSIDE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...AR
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