363
FXUS62 KGSP 030522
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES
BY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES
2) SLIGHTLY LESS BREEZY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH PERIOD. THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER AROUND.
SOME POCKETS STRATO CU HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. STRATO CU SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE UP THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT IT MAY NOT END UP BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF STRATO CU ENDS UP BEING LESS WIDESPREAD.
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL DIP INTO 40S ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, WITH
THE HIGHEST RIDGE TOPS POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S.
LOWS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85
ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOW-END GUSTS RETURN TODAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF BY EARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY MORNING TO END UP A
FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1243 AM EDT FRIDAY: WEAK, DRY HYBRID CAD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. DRY ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NEAR-NORMAL DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES IN PLACE AS UPPER
RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH A LACK OF AN EROSION
MECHANISM. LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE START OF MONDAY AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST, WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY PROPAGATES OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD HELP INDUCE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER
THE LINGERING HYBRID WEDGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THIS CASE,
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED, WITH MENTIONABLE POPS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE ATLANTIC
FETCH WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RUN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
ONSET OF BETTER CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RISE ANOTHER
CATEGORY OR SO COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 113 AM EDT FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS IN RESPONSE,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP A WEAK IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BETTER MOIST UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WHICH HAS INCREASED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWFA TO SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE PERCENTAGES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A COOLER TREND
IN RESPONSE AND MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH VALUES ONLY A COUPLE
TICKS BELOW-NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHOULD EXTEND
WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SEND A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT VARY BETWEEN
MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH SEEMS TO HELP PUSH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS ALSO VARY WITH THE FRONT, BUT NOT
MUCH OF A SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR A LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS THE
BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING RESIDE TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR-NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT,
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL COOL OFF RATHER NICELY, WITH
VALUES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW-NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH KAVL COULD SEE SOME MVFR STRATO CU DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS IT MAY NOT END UP BEING AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS AT KAVL WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING, PICKING UP OUT OF THE E/ESE BY MID-MORNING
BEFORE GOING BACK TO CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT SOME LOW-END
GUSTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT TODAY AT KCLT OR ACROSS THE SC
UPSTATE TERMINALS. ANY GUSTS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN
VFR.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS EACH MORNING. RAIN CHANCES, AND POSSIBLY RESTRICTIONS,
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...AR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page