716
FXUS62 KGSP 031002
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL AS DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES
BY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 600 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES
2) SLIGHTLY LESS BREEZY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS
PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING THANKS TO LIMITED STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE FOG AND LOW STRATUS LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
AS DAYTIME MIXING GETS UNDERWAY. MORNING TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS AND THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH PERIOD, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS
AROUND. IT WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH HIGHS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS,
WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-85 ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE LOW-END GUSTS RETURN TODAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF EARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, BECOMING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWS SATURDAY MORNING TO
END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
MAY ALSO ACT TO LIMIT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1243 AM EDT FRIDAY: WEAK, DRY HYBRID CAD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF A ~1025MB SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SATURDAY AND OFFSHORE
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. DRY ADVECTION FROM THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD HELP TO KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
NEAR-NORMAL DESPITE ANOMALOUSLY WARM THICKNESSES IN PLACE AS UPPER
RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH A LACK OF AN EROSION
MECHANISM. LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER MORE EASTERLY ON SUNDAY AND
EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE START OF MONDAY AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE
DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST, WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY PROPAGATES OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST.
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD HELP INDUCE WEAK MOIST UPGLIDE OVER
THE LINGERING HYBRID WEDGE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. IN THIS CASE,
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED, WITH MENTIONABLE POPS
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE ATLANTIC
FETCH WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD RUN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
ONSET OF BETTER CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RISE ANOTHER
CATEGORY OR SO COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT THANKS TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 113 AM EDT FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
FURTHER OFFSHORE, WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS IN RESPONSE,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP A WEAK IN-SITU WEDGE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BETTER MOIST UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
WHICH HAS INCREASED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE CWFA TO SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE PERCENTAGES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE A COOLER TREND
IN RESPONSE AND MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH WITH VALUES ONLY A COUPLE
TICKS BELOW-NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH SHOULD EXTEND
WELL OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE BY MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SEND A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. TIMING
AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT VARY BETWEEN
MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT A STRONG CONTINENTAL HIGH SEEMS TO HELP PUSH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS ALSO VARY WITH THE FRONT, BUT NOT
MUCH OF A SIGNAL AT THIS TIME FOR A LIKELY SEVERE THREAT AS THE
BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING RESIDE TO THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR-NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT
LOWS RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT,
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WILL COOL OFF RATHER NICELY, WITH
VALUES A CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW-NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS AT KAVL THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. VERY LITTLE STRATO
CU DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT SO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ALLOWED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. KAVL HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FROM VFR TO
VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS SO WILL MAINTAIN A TEMPO FOR VLIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN NE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS AT KAVL WILL REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PICKING UP OUT OF THE E/ESE BY
MID-MORNING BEFORE GOING BACK TO CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THIS
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER COMPARED TO THE LAST
FEW DAYS BUT SOME LOW-END GUSTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
TODAY AT KCLT OR ACROSS THE SC UPSTATE TERMINALS. ANY GUSTS THAT
DEVELOP SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UPPER
CIRRUS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BECOMING SCT TO BKN, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER MAY ACT TO LIMIT THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS EACH MORNING. RAIN CHANCES, AND POSSIBLY RESTRICTIONS,
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...AR
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