007
FXUS62 KGSP 032311
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
711 PM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WHILE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY IN THE NEW WORKWEEK, CAUSING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 710 PM FRIDAY: STRATOCU HAS DISSIPATED WITH WIDESPREAD CIRRUS
MOVING IN OVERHEAD. THIS CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
SOME STRATOCU POSSIBLY RETURNING FROM THE EAST. A BETTER CHANCE OF
STRATOCU ON SATURDAY AS MORE MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST, BUT A
DRY FORECAST CONTINUES. THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE, BROAD UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST AS A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MIGRATE DOWN THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME
CENTERED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP A VERY QUIET FORECAST IN PLACE FOR THE AREA WITH
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER. GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOMORROW A COUPLE TICKS ABOVE WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RESERVOIR OF HIGH-
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES, THE ONLY IMPACTS OF WHICH
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A COLORFUL SUNSET/SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE, SHALLOW MOISTURE POOLING IN FAVORED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT ANOTHER BOUT OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG,
SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1153 AM EDT FRIDAY: CLASSICAL CAD WILL BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT RIDGES
DOWN THE EAST COAST. LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DRY ENVIRONMENT AND ONLY
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, HOWEVER, IS STILL EXPECTED WITHIN THE UPGLIDE
LAYER, THOUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON SOME AREAS COULD MIX OUT ENOUGH
TO SEE SOME SUN. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER
80S ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S, OR EVEN THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
BY MONDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRAW FARTHER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM
THE EASTERN SEABOARD, SEVERELY REDUCING THE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR
CAD...SUCH THAT SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXING OUT LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. STILL NOT CARRYING A POP FOR MONDAY...BUT
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A SLUG OF BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
DEVELOPING MONDAY EVENING, WHICH IF ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTS
IN WITHIN THIS LAYER COULD RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY, MAYBE A DEGREE WARMER,
ESPECIALLY IF THE AFTERNOON IS LESS CLOUDY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1229 PM EDT FRIDAY: BY MONDAY NIGHT, Z500 RIDGING THAT
ONCE DOMINATED THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE INCREASINGLY "SMUSHED"
IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD CONFLUENT ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST ALL THE WAY TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO THE COMPLETE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE,
BEFORE THEY PHASE TOGETHER MID-WEEK TO FORM A SINGLE POTENT TROUGH
OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE RESULT WILL BE LINGERING CAD ON TUESDAY,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AS ANOTHER SLUG
OF STRONGER UPGLIDE DEVELOPS...AND THEN A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE'S STILL DECENT ENSEMBLE VARIABILITY WITH THIS FRONT, BUT THE
LATEST LREF CYCLE GENERALLY AGREES THERE'LL BE AT LEAST A WETTING
RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT DISAGREE ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE
MUCH/ANY POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO ENHANCE RATES. SOME MEMBERS
DEPICT AT LEAST A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WHILE OTHERS PREDICT IT'LL SIMPLY BE TOO DRY AND COOL
FOR GOOD INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. REGARDLESS, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE FALLING WELL BELOW NORMAL (WITH PLEASANT HIGHS
IN THE LOW 70S) BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE MVFR TO
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/STRATUS IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE MAINLY CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA, BUT
SOME VFR STRATOCU COULD BE SEEN. A BETTER CHANCE OF VFR STRATOCU
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. LIGHT N TO NE OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT WITH A BUMP UP IN SPEED WITH MIXING SATURDAY MORNING. KAVL
WILL SEE LIGHT S TO SE WIND ON SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW
STRATUS EACH MORNING. RAIN CHANCES, AND POSSIBLY RESTRICTIONS, MAY
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...RWH/TW
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...RWH
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