483
FXUS62 KGSP 040537
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
137 AM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED WARMING IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT ARRIVES. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 120 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING
2) WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS ENDING UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
3) DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS CIRRUS STREAM OVERHEAD
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM WHILE THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC NUDGES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MID-MORNING.
THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS AROUND.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS ARE STREAMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD
DEVELOP AGAIN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIFT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DAYTIME MIXING DEVELOPS. LOWS THIS
MORNING WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING,
ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO END UP ~1-3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTERNOON
TEMPS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY WITH NO GUSTS EXPECTED. BROKEN TO
SCATTERED CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NEAR
TERM. WITH THICKER CIRRUS DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY,
LOWS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, ENDING
UP ~5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THICKER CLOUD COVER, MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG/STRATUS MAY RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1249 AM EDT SATURDAY: WEAK, DRY HYBRID CAD REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH STRAGGLES NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE GENTLY DRIFTING OFFSHORE AND WILL DRIVE
CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, WHILE UPPER RIDGING
HOVERS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MODEL GUIDANCE PUSH THE SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE FURTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST THAT WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED. LINGERING
CAD, TURNED IN-SITU MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE DEEPER BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING HELPS TO SLOWLY ERODE WHATEVER WEDGE IS LEFT,
ESPECIALLY BY PEAK HEATING. LATEST MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT DRIER
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND INTO THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
IN TURN, EXPECT LOW-LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE TO VEER MORE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WHILE SURFACE WINDS RESPOND IN THIS WAY BY THE DAYTIME
PERIOD MONDAY. MOIST UPGLIDE ALONG THE WEDGE BOUNDARY COULD HELP TO
SPARK A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY, BUT
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST IS SHOWN KEEPING THE BETTER MOISTURE
FROM TRANSPORTING THIS FAR NORTH. AS A RESULT, MENTIONABLE POPS HAVE
MOSTLY BEEN TAKEN OUT OF THE SHORT TERM, BUT STILL THINK THAT THE
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE ESCARPMENT, AND BALSAMS COULD PICK UP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS
BETWEEN SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY, AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWFA WITH ONLY
DECENT CLOUD COVER TO SHOW FOR. AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH MONDAY
POTENTIALLY RISING A DEGREE OR TWO, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER CAN MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 127 AM EDT SATURDAY: LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM
THE HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION IN RESPONSE AS THE TROUGH SLIDES OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND ATLANTIC CANADA BY WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL VARY AS FAR AS
QPF RESPONSE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT KNOCKS ON THE DOOR OF THE
NC/TN BORDER. BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING STILL RESIDES
NORTH OF THE AREA, SO THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS RATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME, BUT IF THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING
WEDNESDAY, SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY GET GOING. THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE COME TO A BETTER CONSENSUS
OF A FULL FROPA OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWFA BY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS A STOUT CONTINENTAL HIGH (~1030MB) DRIFTS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE
SETTING UP SHOP OVER NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL CAA
IS EXPECTED AS A RESULT, WITH A WEDGE-LIKE CONFIGURATION SETTING
UP. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SEEMS TO STRUGGLE PUSHING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH ONCE IT REACHES THE GULF COAST. IF A WEDGE BOUNDARY
DEVELOPS IN LIEU OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE GULF, EXPECT
SOME ISENTROPIC FEEDBACK BY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT THANKS TO THE
INFLUENCE FROM THE CONTINENTAL HIGH AND CAA, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH BETTER AIRMASS
MODIFICATION.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. KAVL COULD SEE CIGS DROP TO IFR TO LIFR AGAIN DESPITE SCT
TO BKN CIRRUS STREAMING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THUS, MAINTAINED A
TEMPO FOR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM 09Z-13Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM
TO LIGHT AND VRB AT KAVL THROUGH DAYBREAK, PICKING UP OUT OF THE SE
BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT KAVL WILL GO
CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4-9 KTS TODAY WITH NO GUSTS EXPECTED. SCT TO
BKN CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING. RAIN CHANCES, AND POSSIBLY
RESTRICTIONS, MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...AR
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