563
FXUS62 KGSP 091753
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
153 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD TRACK NORTHWARD OVER THE OUTER BANKS
THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. A WARMING TREND DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT THURSDAY: STRONG ~1035MB CONTINENTAL SURFACE
HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO
DRIVE IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST.
DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S, ESPECIALLY AS
DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
CLOUD COVER IS LINGERING IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER JUST WEST OF THE
CWA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE ~5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME FULLY DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT IN AN OTHERWISE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP, WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RUN ~5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MANEUVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FROM YESTERDAY HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEAST COASTS. EXPECT FOR WEAK SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO COMMENCE AS A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW WILL HELP KEEP BREEZY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL LOW MAY MOVE ACROSS THE I-77 CORRIDOR BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. HOWEVER, CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT BAY AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ON FRIDAY REMAIN ~5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE SITUATION OVER THE WEEKEND IS
COMPLICATED BY THE WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
INTERACTING WITH THE OLD COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND THAT REMAINS THE CASE. THE UNCERTAINTY/PROBLEM
HAS ALWAYS BEEN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SFC LOW WILL TRACK OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM THEN STARTS TO INTERACT WITH A COMPACT
BUT STRONG UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THE TREND ON THIS MODEL CYCLE IS CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH
A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. ALTHO
THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE MODELS STILL LOOK ESSENTIALLY DRY, THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE MUCH MORE SUPPORT FOR BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE AREA ALONG/EAST OF I-77 STARTING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE OUTER BANKS. THE AREA COULD USE SOME RAIN, BUT DON'T GET YOUR
HOPES UP. EVEN IF THE I-77 CORRIDOR SEES THE LIGHT RAIN, AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, WHICH WOULD
HARDLY MAKE A DENT. WHAT THE MODEL TREND WILL DO IS MAKE SATURDAY
A MORE CLOUDY AND BREEZY DAY. IN SPITE OF THE WEAKENING OF THE DRY
WEDGE ACROSS THE REGION, INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
AROUND 5-10 DEG BELOW NORMAL. ONCE THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
PAST OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND A BIT, ENDING UP
ONLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM EDT THURSDAY...THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY
QUIET. THE COMPACT UPPER LOW DIVING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PASS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON MONDAY, CLOSE ENOUGH
TO DO SOMETHING IF IT WASN'T SO MOISTURE-STARVED. BUT, ALAS,
THERE WON'T EVEN BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AT LOW LEVELS TO RESULT IN
ANY UPSLOPE ACTIVITY ON THE TN BORDER. FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD,
A MEAN MID/UPPER RIDGE POSITION TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP A NW TO
WNW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
HAS AT LEAST ONE SHOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME UPSLOPE SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT THE
CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION THUS FAR. THUS, WE HAVE A DRY
MEDIUM RANGE. TEMPS GO THRU A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS ENDING UP
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AIDED
BY SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS. LOW TEMPS WILL
STAY WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS ANY CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
DAYTIME AND BECOMING MORE SPORADIC DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. KAVL WILL KEEP A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWITCH TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY
OUTSIDE OF SOME MID- TO UPPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACHING KCLT BY
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS STARTING THIS WEEKEND,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CAC
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