604
FXUS62 KGSP 270612
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
212 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD AIR WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY OUT BY LATE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM MON: HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN THE EAST COAST FROM
ONTARIO/QUEBEC IN CAD CONFIGURATION, NOW STRENGTHENED DIABATICALLY
FOLLOWING LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAD DOMINATES
THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST. CURRENTLY SEEING A LULL
IN RADAR RETURNS OVER THE CWA ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE,
SHOULD BE EXPECTED OFF AND ON OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UPPER
LOW NOW CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WILL WOBBLE
GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS TN TODAY. 850MB FLOW WILL BACK AND AMPLIFY IN
ADVANCE OF THAT FEATURE, WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
LOW ADDING DYNAMIC LIFT THIS MORNING. THESE WILL BRING A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THROUGH
THE MORNING. SAID BAND MAY WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL JET DIMINISHES
DIURNALLY, BUT FORCING WILL BE REPLENISHED LATER IN THE DAY; WAA
AND MOISTURE FLUX DEEPEN/STRENGTHEN AS FLOW BACKS AT 700 MB, AND
INSTABILITY FROM ATOP THE WEDGE INVERSION MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE BY
AFTERNOON. THE BETTER SHORT-TERM PRECIP RATES IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA, AND IN THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT NEAR THE
SOUTHWEST BORDER OF NC, LOOK TO BE IN THE MORNING, WITH THE BETTER
RATES SHIFTING TO THE EAST-FACING ESCARPMENT AND EASTERN CWA IN
GENERAL BY THE END OF THE DAY. PWATS WILL CERTAINLY BE WELL HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALTHOUGH A RELATIVELY MANAGEABLE 1.5 TO 2 SD
ABOVE CLIMO. MOST PIEDMONT AREAS WILL SEE TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH 2 TO 3 MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT,
THOUGH ISOLATED TOTALS TO 4" COULD OCCUR. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT
DRY WEATHER AND MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING 6-HOURLY TOTALS BELOW 2"
ALONG THE ESCARPMENT, FLOOD THREAT LOOKS TO BE MITIGATED IN THE
NEAR TERM. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE SC/GA
LAKELANDS OWING TO STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
TEMPS HAVE BEEN BASED ON A SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE BLEND WHICH TYPICALLY
DOES PRETTY WELL IN CAD EVENTS AND CAN ACCOUNT FOR NONDIURNAL
TRENDS. MOST AREAS LOOK TO HAVE LESS THAN 5 DEGREES OF VARIATION
BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY EVENING. BY TONIGHT, WITH UPPER LOW REACHING
THE APPALACHIANS AND A COASTAL LOW WRAPPING UP OFF THE NC/SC COAST,
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AND SOME SHALLOW CAA IS EXPECTED TO BRING TEMPS
A BIT COOLER THAN THIS MORNING BUT MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
IN THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 40S IN THE MTN VALLEYS (MID-UPPER 30S
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS).
CLOSE CONSIDERATION WAS GIVEN TO P-TYPE WITH NUMEROUS OBS SITES
IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS HOVERING IN THE MID 30S AS OF THIS
WRITING, AND LIKELY FALLING BACK INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT WITH
ONGOING PRECIP. PROG SOUNDINGS, BACKED UP BY ACARS SOUNDINGS FROM
CLT, SUGGEST SATURATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED UP TO ABOUT 700
MB OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND WITH WAA STRENGTHENING ONLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHEST RIDGETOPS ARE WARMER THAN
THE VALLEYS ALTHOUGH THE NOSE OF THE INVERSION REMAINS ABOVE THE
SURFACE. GIVEN THE SATURATION, VERY LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. THE WARM NOSE DOES REMAIN STRONG TONIGHT AND IS SHOWN TO
BE SATURATED BENEATH, BUT THE LOWER LEVEL CAA MAY BRING TEMPS TO
FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. WE OFTEN GET A FEW SLEET REPORTS
IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THIS KIND OF SETUP, ALTHOUGH IF THAT OCCURS
IT SHOULD BE JUST A NOVELTY.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1:35 AM EDT MONDAY: THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST PICKS UP AT 12Z
ON TUESDAY WITH A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
CONUS AND A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE PHASING INTO ANOMA-
LOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE
SPLIT UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE PHASING, RESULTING IN A VERY
LARGE UPPER LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST TO OUR WEST. THE LOW
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER OUR
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY THURSDAY. AT THE SFC, A COLD-
AIR WEDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS THE
PERIOD BEGINS EARLY TUESDAY. AS TUESDAY WEARS ON, THE WEDGE MAY
WEAKEN A BIT, HOWEVER THE MOIST UPGLIDE UP AND OVER THE WEDGE IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH MORE SUBSTANTIALLY. LATE TUES INTO WED, THE
MODELS DEVELOP ANOTHER SFC LOW ALONG AN ELONGATED BAROCLINIC ZONE
THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT A MOIST WARM FRONT OVER OUR CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS TO OUR AREA. THE SFC LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR
AREA AS THE PERIOD IS ENDING EARLY THURSDAY. OVERALL, WE'RE STILL
EXPECTING A LULL IN PRECIP ON TUESDAY WITH POPS RAMPING BACK UP
EARLY WEDNESDAY. I MAINTAIN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER MOST
OF OUR CWA THRU 00Z THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTH. WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP AMOUNTS, FCST QPF
HAS BEEN TRENDING HIGHER WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE
MORE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS NOW EXPECTED TO GET ANOTHER 2 TO 3".
THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIP FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
NONETHELESS, THE OVERALL FLOODING THREAT STILL APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE MORE
FAVORED ZONES IS INCREASING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING A BIT COOLER FOR BOTH TUES AND WED AND WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE
TO WARM ABOVE THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST OF OUR FCST AREA. WINDS
HAVE ALSO TRENDED A BIT STRONGER FOR TUES, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1:45 AM EDT MONDAY: THE EXTENDED FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
THURSDAY WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER OUR AREA WITH
UPPER RIDGING WELL TO OUR WEST. ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS EX-
PECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND APPEARS TO REMAIN CLOSED INTO THE
WEEKEND. HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY RECOVER SOMEWHAT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MOST OF THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS THE BACK-
SIDE OF THE LOW AMPLIFYING AGAIN JUST TO OUR WEST LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THE RESULTING UPPER TROF WILL THEN TRANSLATE OVER
OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AT THE SFC, A ROBUST LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS
AS THE PERIOD BEGINS EARLY THURS. IN ITS WAKE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE
SPREADS OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND LINGERS THRU SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO MOVE SOME SORT OF
MOIST, TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST, BUT THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS TO OUR SENSIBLE WX REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL, PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR
FCST AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL QPF EXPECTED AFTER
ROUGHLY 12Z THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MOSTLY DRY. THE UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPS GRADUALLY WARMING AS
THE PERIOD WEARS ON, HOWEVER LOW TEMPS TREND COLDER THRU SATURDAY
MORNING UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LIGHT PRECIP HAS JUST DEPARTED KCLT AND KHKY
AT ISSUANCE TIME. SOMEWHAT OF A LULL IN COVERAGE OF SHRA TO START
THE PERIOD BUT SOME P6SM -DZ AND OCCASIONAL -SHRA MAY OCCUR OFF AND
ON THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH ONGOING COLD-AIR DAMMING EVENT. MOST
OF THE AREA IS STILL VFR AT 06Z BUT RESTRICTIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP BY
ABOUT DAYBREAK, EVEN WITHOUT ANY NEW PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. THE NEXT
BAND OF SHRA ALREADY NEAR KAND/KGMU/KGSP COULD BRING MVFR OR EVEN
BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS AND THOSE WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT THRU
THE MORNING WHILE ALSO SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. FAVORED TEMPO TO
HANDLE THE INITIALLY INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS, WITH PREVAILING
LINES REFLECTING GENERAL DETERIORATION NEAR/AFTER DAYBREAK. ALL
SITES SETTLE TO IFR BETWEEN 12-16Z AND REMAIN NO BETTER THAN IFR
THRU THE END OF THEIR PERIODS WITH VSBY FALLING TO MVFR OR IFR
AFTER ONSET OF STEADY/FREQUENT PRECIP. HEAVIER SHOWERS LIKELY AT
SOME POINT IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING SO PROB30 GENERALLY
USED TO HANDLE ASSOCIATED LOWER CATEGORY. AT KCLT THERE IS GREATER
CONFIDENCE FOR THE AFTN +SHRA THAN FOR TIMING OF IFR ONSET THIS
MORNING, SO USED PROB30 FIRST AND THEN TEMPO IN THE AFTN. STEADIER
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT; LIFR CIGS LIKELY AT
THE SC SITES BEFORE 06Z. BREEZY NE WINDS EXCEPT PRIMARILY SE AT
KAVL ONCE THEY PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING; GUSTS TO 15-25 KT MUCH
OF THE DAY. LLWS CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BE MET AT KAVL TONIGHT AS
WINDS STRENGTHEN ABOVE THE DAMMED BOUNDARY LAYER.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND RESTRICTIONS LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY, BUT PERIODIC RAIN/RESTRICTIONS
RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS TO END
THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 85 1939 37 1957 62 1939 23 1962
KCLT 86 1939 48 1957 71 2010 24 1962
1919
KGSP 86 1891 48 1957 69 2010 30 1962
RECORDS FOR 10-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 2023 41 1910 62 1984 23 1914
1940 1918
KCLT 87 1940 49 1976 67 1919 26 2001
KGSP 85 1991 51 1976 66 1919 27 1914
1903
RECORDS FOR 10-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 2020 32 1910 59 1984 21 1976
KCLT 83 2023 48 1925 67 1984 27 2001
2020 1910 1976
KGSP 84 2016 47 1925 66 1984 25 1976
1927
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...JCW
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JCW
CLIMATE...GSP
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