739
FXUS62 KGSP 271732
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
132 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD AIR WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY OUT BY LATE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 110 PM MON: WIDESPREAD RAIN, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY, WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP
THE CAD LOCKED IN PLACE AS WELL. WHILE THERE IS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, A STRONG WARM NOSE HAS DEVELOPED ATOP THE CAD KEEPING
THE AIR MASS CAPPED. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS
OR IN LOW LYING AREAS AS THE HIGHER RAIN RATES MOVE THROUGH, BUT THE
OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS VERY LOW. MOSTLY JUST BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
FOR OUR AREA.
THE STRONG UPGLIDE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE BETTER PRECIP
COVERAGE AND HIGHEST RAINFALL RATES SHIFTING AS WELL. STILL, EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AGAIN, WHILE THE PRECIP WILL
BRIEFLY BE HEAVY, THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT IS LOW. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH WHERE THE LIFT ENDS
FIRST, WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES, POSSIBLY UP TO 3, ELSEWHERE.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SLEET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY BUT NO ACCUMS EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY DRIZZLE CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH
THE CAD REMAINING IN PLACE. HOWEVER, THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS AS
THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHEASTERLY. HIGHS WILL ALSO SHOW THE CAD
PATTERN WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE LITTLE TN
VALLEY AND LOWER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NEAR THE TN BORDER.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EDT MONDAY: DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DOMINATING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AS WE MOVE INTO THE SHORT TERM, WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE ZIPPING AROUND THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE MEAN
TROUGH. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PHASE AS THIS SECONDARY WAVE BECOMES
DOMINANT AND ABSORBS WHAT IS LEFT OF THE EXITING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
PERIOD. STRONG DAMMING HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA,
WITH THE COLD WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW GEARS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND STARTS MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY, THE WARM FRONT
WILL START LIFTING NORTH ATTEMPTING TO ERODE THE CAD (BUT CAD
EROSION STILL IS NOT ALWAYS HANDLED WELL BY GUIDANCE). IN ANY CASE,
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH 2-3" IN
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE ESCARPMENT AND GENERALLY 1-1.5"
ELSEWHERE, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. RAINFALL
RATES MAY BE BRIEFLY HIGH GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT ATOP THE
COLD DOME WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE UPPER TN
VALLEY, AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR STREAM RESPONSES OFF THE ESCARPMENT
GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WE ARE EXPERIENCING AT AFD TIME. OVERALL
FLOOD RISK IS MINIMAL AND MORE LIKELY JUST ANOTHER GOOD SOAKER, BUT
AGAIN QPF TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. WITH THE DAMMING IN
PLACE STILL ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF WELL-BELOW-NORMAL
HIGHS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, ERODING THE DAMMING
AND SWEEPING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
WINTRY PRECIP MIXED IN >5KFT (POSSIBLY ISOLATED TO EVEN HIGHER
PEAKS) IN THE NW FLOW. WINDS WILL PICK UP AS WELL WITH THE INCREASED
SURFACE GRADIENT AS WE MOVE INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BUT CONTINUED
COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE CAA DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EDT MONDAY: WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING AS WE MOVE INTO
THE EXTENDED THURSDAY NIGHT, MEAN UPPER TROUGHING AND CAA ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE, WITH LEE TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. DOWNSLOPING
WILL INCREASE AND THUS SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL RECOVERY IN AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT, AND NEAR
FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET SO AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD BEAR THAT IN MIND FOR TRICK-OR-
TREATING ACTIVITIES.
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, REINFORCING THE UPPER SYSTEM AND DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FAR OUT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE CURRENT FORECAST DOES
GIVE US SOME WINTRY WEATHER AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE, SHOULD SEE SOME (NOT MUCH) RECOVERY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS. OVERALL CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS US 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: COLD-AIR DAMMING REGIME REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RA WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR VSBY
AND IFR CIGS, BUT IFR VSBY AND MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
HEAVIER RAINFALL. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NE WIND, LIGHTER N WIND AT KAVL ALSO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. LLWS EXPECTED AT KAVL WITH AN ENE LOW LEVEL JET. THESE
GENERAL CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY TUESDAY AS WELL,
ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SEEN AT KAND WHERE RAINFALL ENDS
SOONER, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WORSE CONDITIONS OFF AND ON
LINGERING AT KCLT/KHKY. THE GUSTY NE WIND, LIGHTER N AT KAVL, SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE LLWS SHOULD ABATE.
OUTLOOK: PRECIP/RESTRICTIONS PROBABLY WORSEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT PASSING STORM SYSTEM. DRIER WEATHER MAY RETURN
AS SOON AS THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SHOULD LAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-27
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 85 1939 37 1957 62 1939 23 1962
KCLT 86 1939 48 1957 71 2010 24 1962
1919
KGSP 86 1891 48 1957 69 2010 30 1962
RECORDS FOR 10-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 2023 41 1910 62 1984 23 1914
1940 1918
KCLT 87 1940 49 1976 67 1919 26 2001
KGSP 85 1991 51 1976 66 1919 27 1914
1903
RECORDS FOR 10-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 2020 32 1910 59 1984 21 1976
KCLT 83 2023 48 1925 67 1984 27 2001
2020 1910 1976
KGSP 84 2016 47 1925 66 1984 25 1976
1927
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...
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