466
FXUS62 KGSP 282355
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD AIR WEDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA KEEPING TEMPERATURES CHILLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY OUT BY LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT TUESDAY: CAD WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC
LIFT HAS WEAKENED, SO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS DIMINISHED; HOWEVER,
SPOTTY RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH WEAK
LIFT REMAINING IN PLACE. ISENTROPIC AND SYNOPTIC LIFT BEGIN
INCREASING OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. UPPER DIVERGENCE
INCREASES AS WELL AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX
MOVES INTO THE AREA. PRECIP SHOULD START OUT AS RAIN AN DRIZZLE THEN
TRANSITION TO SHOWERS WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING MOVING IN.
UNLESS THE CAD ERODES MORE QUICKLY THEN EXPECTED, WHICH SEEMS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN, THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH NO
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. THAT SAID, POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PONDING OF WATER OR BANKFULL STREAM LEVELS GIVEN
THE PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL, BUT THESE SHOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE,
IF THEY DO DEVELOP, IN LIGHT OF THE OVERALL PREVIOUSLY DRY PATTERN.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN THE HEART OF
THE WEDGE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EDT TUESDAY: AS WE MOVE INTO THE SHORT TERM WEDNESDAY
EVENING, THE PARENT CAD HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED WELL NORTHEAST AND NO
LONGER IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DAMMING, THOUGH A RESIDUAL COOL
POOL WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY,
WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW PUSHING A FRONT THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH.
WARM FRONTAL PRECIP ENHANCED BY CONTINUED ISENTROPIC AND OROGRAPHIC
UPLIFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES,
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA, ERODING THE DAMMING. CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA COMPARED WITH TONIGHT, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NW NC PIEDMONT. NW FLOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT DOWNSLOPING WILL COUNTERACT THE CAA AND AS IS
TYPICAL AFTER CAD EROSION, TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE 5-8 OR
SO DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
VERY INTERESTING PATTERN AS THE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND ESPECIALLY
THE SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED BY MOST GUIDANCE TO PHASE WITH MELISSA
AT IT MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE BAHAMAS.
COLDER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE, WITH
LOWS ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AROUND 40 AND NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FLOW ALOFT WILL FLATTEN
SOMEWHAT BUT THE SURFACE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG, WITH
WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT 15-20MPH IN THE PIEDMONT AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE WINDS MAY PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO EVALUATE THIS IN LATER FORECAST CYCLES. A COOL BUT MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY (EXCEPT IN THE TN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE NW
FLOW WILL KEEP ENOUGH UPSLOPE MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDINESS). AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE GEARING UP OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO WATCH FOR THE EXTENDED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EDT TUESDAY: THE FLATTER UPPER PATTERN AT THE BASE OF
THE LARGER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT
LITTLE UPPER WAVE DIGGING DOWN AND CLOSING OFF LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
IN THE MEANTIME, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
LEAD TO THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD; MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
PIEDMONT AND BELOW FREEZING AGAIN AT THE PEAKS. COULD SEE SOME
FREEZING IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IF THE WINDS DROP OFF EARLY
ENOUGH. WILL HAVE TO EVALUATE THIS FOR FROST, KEEPING IN MIND THAT
NOV 1 IS OUR FROST/FREEZE CUTOFF FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
ADDITIONALLY, FOLKS SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE ON HALLOWEEN SHOULD KEEP
IN MIND THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
NIGHT.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIGS AND DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. THE UPPER LOW
DIVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INDUCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD FAVORED A
CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM, BUT NEW TRENDS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS DEEPER
CUTOFF LOW, WITH MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. POPS INCREASE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THAT
AREA AND GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A WEDGE OF COOL, MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, RESULTING IN CONTINUED NE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS (WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE) AND LOW CIGS. CIGS
WILL GENERALLY FAVOR MVFR OR LOW VFR UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN
CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY AT ALL SITES
BY DAYBREAK. CHANCES FOR -RA AND DZ WILL ALSO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTED VISIBILITY INCREASING
IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MORNING. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED AFTERNOON, WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY, AND ESPECIALLY
INTO WED EVENING. IF ANYTHING, VISBY MAY THEREFORE DECREASE LATE IN
THE PERIOD, BUT THIS WILL BE ADDRESSED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES
AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY VISBY RESTRICTIONS
INCREASES.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, AND GUSTY
WINDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 10-28
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 81 2023 41 1910 62 1984 23 1914
1940 1918
KCLT 87 1940 49 1976 67 1919 26 2001
KGSP 85 1991 51 1976 66 1919 27 1914
1903
RECORDS FOR 10-29
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 82 2020 32 1910 59 1984 21 1976
KCLT 83 2023 48 1925 67 1984 27 2001
2020 1910 1976
KGSP 84 2016 47 1925 66 1984 25 1976
1927
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...
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