488
FXUS62 KGSP 291746
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
146 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO OUR WET,
DREARY WEATHER. WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1248 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. CAD CONTINUES TO HOLD ON STRONG AND AN
UPTICK IN DRIZZLE COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THANKS TO INCREASING
INSENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEEPER MOISTURE AND FORCING
SHIFTS INTO THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BROKEN COVERAGE
OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION. WITH THE CAD IN PLACE,
SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY, BUT SUBSTANTIAL FORCING
AND SPORADIC ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES AS THE UNDERNEATH SURFACE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT AS
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS HELPS TO ANCHOR THESE SHOWERS FOR A LONGER
PERIOD OF TIME. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 1-2" IN THIS PARTICULAR AREA,
BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THAT
BEING SAID, PONDING OF WATER OR BANKFULL STREAM LEVELS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES BARELY BUDGE FROM WHERE THEY
ARE CURRENTLY SITUATED AT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S OUTSIDE OF THE COLDER RIDGETOPS.
DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH INTO THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WHAT LOOKS TO BE A DRY
CONVEYOR BELT BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT. STEADY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NC/TN BORDER THANKS
TO NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD CORE CLOSED LOW. IN THIS CASE,
THINKING IS WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000'
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. VERTICAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD BE A MIXTURE OF SNOWFLAKES
AND RIME ICE AS SATURATION BARELY TAPS INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AND SHOULDN'T CAUSE
ANY REAL IMPACTS, BUT EXCITING THAT WE ARE GETTING OUR FIRST REAL
TASTE OF WINTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AS GRADUAL
CLEARING FILTERS IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIP SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT
SHOULD BECOME ALL LIQUID BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES AND
FREEZING LEVELS RISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAD EROSION AND A
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD HELP THE REST OF THE AREA TO
SEE THE SUN ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION WITH THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH BETTER INSOLATION AND DRIER CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NC/TN
BORDER, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO REBOUND COMPARED TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT VALUES STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT, WHILE REMAINING 10-20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER CLOUD
COVER WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO PLAY A
ROLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY ADVECTION
CONTINUES, WHILE DEEPER MIXING WILL HELP TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE
GUSTS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM WED: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LINGERING NW FLOW
ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT GUSTY WINDS LINGER INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT ANY WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. THESE WINDS MAY HELP KEEP FROST FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD,
BUT FROSTY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO PICKENS,
GREENVILLE, SPARTANBURG, AND LAURENS COUNTIES. SOME FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, BUT THEY MAY BE ISSUED
OVERNIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BETTER FROST CHANCES, AND FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS
ARE LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM WED: THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND TIMING OF A POTENTIAL UPPER
LOW MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS
WEAKER AND FASTER WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING IT OVER OR VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA. IT DEVELOPS A STRONG MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW BRINGING
WIDESPREAD, POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 29/00Z
ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT HASN'T SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES, HAVE FOLLOWED THE MODEL
BLEND WHICH HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE
LOW. LOWS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUN AND MON, WITH FROST CONCERNS SUN MORNING. HIGHS GO TO
NEAR NORMAL TUE AND WED, WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE
MORNING AND NEAR NORMAL WED MORNING. OF COURSE, ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A CAD SOLUTION DRASTICALLY
ALTERING THE TEMP FORECAST. AT NIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: LIFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS CONTINUE AS THE AREA
REMAINS LOCKED INTO STOUT LOW CLOUD COVER AND DRIZZLE WITH GOOD
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WHILE KAVL MAINTAINS A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT, WITH SPORADIC LOW-
END GUSTS. THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, WITH LIFR/IFR CIGS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE GRADUAL SCATTERING OCCURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE
WIND SHIFTS BEHIND THE FRONT AND VEER TO A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT,
WHILE TOGGLING TOWARDS THE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT VFR CIGS. KAVL WILL
TURN TO A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BEHIND THE FRONT AND COULD KEEP A
LONGER BKN CIG AS MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THANKS TO THIS
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. PLACED A VCSH MENTION FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIOD THURSDAY AT KAVL AS A SHOWER COULD MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL,
BUT THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE NC/TN
BORDER.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CAN'T RULED OUT
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC
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