130
FXUS62 KGSP 300005
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO OUR WET,
DREARY WEATHER. WARMER BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 755 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO THE
TN VALLEY THIS EVENING, WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING POSITIONED ACROSS OUR AREA, RESULTING IN
MULTIPLE BANDS OF MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ROTATING ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH CAD REMAINING FIRMLY IN PLACE, SURFACE INSTABILITY
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO COME BY, BUT SUBSTANTIAL FORCING AND SPORADIC
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT,
WHERE SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FORCING AND RAINFALL
RATES. STORM TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE STILL EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS,
WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.0" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DRIER AIR WILL PUNCH INTO THE REGION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER THE OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WHAT LOOKS TO
BE A DRY CONVEYOR BELT BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT. STEADY PRECIP
IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE NC/TN
BORDER THANKS TO NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. FREEZING
LEVELS WILL DROP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD CORE
CLOSED LOW. IN THIS CASE, THINKING IS WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000' FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AROUND DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. VERTICAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD BE A MIXTURE
OF SNOWFLAKES AND RIME ICE AS SATURATION BARELY TAPS INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AND
SHOULDN'T CAUSE ANY REAL IMPACTS, BUT EXCITING THAT WE ARE GETTING
OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF WINTER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
AS GRADUAL CLEARING FILTERS IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE NORTHWEST FLOW PRECIP SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
BUT SHOULD BECOME ALL LIQUID BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
AND FREEZING LEVELS RISE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAD EROSION AND A
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD HELP THE REST OF THE AREA TO
SEE THE SUN ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION WITH THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
WITH BETTER INSOLATION AND DRIER CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE NC/TN
BORDER, EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO REBOUND COMPARED
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT VALUES STILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT, WHILE REMAINING 10-20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE WILL BE
BETTER CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. WIND GUSTS
WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES, WHILE DEEPER MIXING WILL HELP TO BRING
DOWN SOME OF THE GUSTS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM WED: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLOWLY RELAXED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA AND
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. LINGERING NW FLOW
ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT GUSTY WINDS LINGER INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT ANY WIND ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS WOULD BE
LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. THESE WINDS MAY HELP KEEP FROST FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD,
BUT FROSTY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO PICKENS,
GREENVILLE, SPARTANBURG, AND LAURENS COUNTIES. SOME FREEZING TEMPS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME, BUT THEY MAY BE ISSUED
OVERNIGHT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BETTER FROST CHANCES, AND FREEZING TEMPS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT. FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS
ARE LIKELY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM WED: THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND TIMING OF A POTENTIAL UPPER
LOW MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. THE CANADIAN IS
WEAKER AND FASTER WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS IS STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING IT OVER OR VERY CLOSE
TO THE AREA. IT DEVELOPS A STRONG MILLER A TYPE GULF LOW BRINGING
WIDESPREAD, POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE 29/00Z
ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT HASN'T SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY. GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES, HAVE FOLLOWED THE MODEL
BLEND WHICH HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP DURING THE TIME FRAME OF THE
LOW. LOWS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SUN AND MON, WITH FROST CONCERNS SUN MORNING. HIGHS GO TO
NEAR NORMAL TUE AND WED, WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUE
MORNING AND NEAR NORMAL WED MORNING. OF COURSE, ANY PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A CAD SOLUTION DRASTICALLY
ALTERING THE TEMP FORECAST. AT NIGHT IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS
OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: COOL AIR WEDGE AND WAVES OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE TERMINAL
FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 OR SO HOURS OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. GENERAL IFR/LIFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WHILE
PERIODS OF MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR VISBY ARE EXPECTED DURING TIMES
OF RAINFALL. EVEN OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL, RESTRICTED VISBY IN BR
COULD DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
WITH VISBY RESTRICTIONS REMAINING POSSIBLE UNTIL DAYBREAK OR SO. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SW BETWEEN
6 AND 9Z, BRINGING AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES, WHILE CIGS SHOULD
BEGIN STEADILY IMPROVING, WITH VFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST
SITES BETWEEN 09-12Z. SCT CUMULUS/STRATOCU IN THE 035-060 RANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH SCT/OCCASIONAL
BKN CLOUDS AT THE MVFR LEVEL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AT KAVL. LINGERING E/NE WINDS AT 5-10 KTS THIS EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE SW OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH THROUGH AND THE COOL AIR WEDGE ERODES. WINDS WILL BECOME WSW
(EXCEPT NW AT KAVL) AND INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. CAN'T RULE OUT
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC/JDL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL
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