255
FXUS62 KGSP 300621
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
221 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
SKIES CLEAR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
WARMER. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER. DRY WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1:50 AM EDT THURSDAY: THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING
ITS WAY ACROSS OUR FCST AREA FROM THE SW, WITH THE LAST OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HRS WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY PUSHING INTO THE REGION AS THE
ATTENDANT SFC LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER THE OH VALLEY. STEADY
PRECIP IS EXPECTED OVER THE NC MTNS, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NC/TN BORDER THANKS TO NW FLOW OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT.
FREEZING LEVELS WILL DROP INTO THE MORNING AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT.
THUS, SOME AMOUNT OF WINTRY PRECIP IS POSSIBLE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
ROUGHLY 5000 FT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AROUND DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD BE A MIXTURE OF SNOW
AND RIME ICE AS SATURATION BARELY TAPS INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AND THEY SHOULDN'T
CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEG
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AS GRADUAL CLEARING FILTERS IN
FROM SW TO NE.
OTHERWISE, THE NW FLOW PRECIP SHOULD LINGER THRU MUCH OF TODAY,
BUT SHOULD BECOME ALL LIQUID BY THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES AND
FREEZING LEVELS INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAD EROSION AND A
DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT SHOULD HELP SCT OUT LINGERING
CLOUD COVER TODAY, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION AS THE
OCCLUDED SFC LOW LIFTS FURTHER NE. WITH BETTER INSOLATION AND DRIER
CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF THE NC/TN BORDER AREA), EXPECT AFTN HIGHS TO
APPROACH 60 DEG ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER TERRAIN, WHICH IS STILL 5
TO 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE OCT. OVER THE MTNS, HIGHS WILL REMAIN
MORE LIKE 10 TO 20 DEG BELOW NORMAL, WITH BETTER CLOUD COVER WITHIN
THE NW FLOW REGIME. AS THE DRY ADVECTION CONTINUES THRU THE DAY TODAY,
DEEPER MIXING WILL HELP BRING DOWN SOME OF THE GUSTS ALOFT TO THE SFC
ACROSS OUR AREA. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA
THIS AFTN/EVENING. GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NC MTNS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1250 AM THU: GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH COULD STILL OCCUR THROUGH
MIDDAY FRIDAY, WITH GRADIENT RELAXING SUCH THAT 850MB WINDS DIMINISH
AND THE POTENTIAL GUSTS DO AS WELL. THAT'S NOT TO SAY IT WON'T BE A
BREEZY DAY, WITH CONTINUING NW WINDS SUSTAINED AT NEAR 10 MPH ACROSS
THE AREA. MOST AREAS WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER, MOST NOTABLY IN THE
SAVANNAH VALLEY NEAREST THE INCOMING RIDGE. MAXES STILL SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SURFACE WINDS TREND LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AS SFC HIGH CENTERS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. TEMPS FALL THRU THE 50S DURING THE EVENING IN THE
PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. A DEEP DRY LAYER ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT
GOOD RADIATION INITIALLY AND THUS DECOUPLING. WENT SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN NBM FOR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE HIGH IS BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT COMING DIRECTLY FROM THE NORTH, RH WILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH OVERNIGHT AND AS TEMPS LARGELY FALL INTO THE MID 30S
IN THE AREAS WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM REMAINS ACTIVE, PATCHY
FROST IS EXPECTED. NOT YET CONFIDENT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
A FROST ADVISORY, BUT THAT DECISION IS NOT NORMALLY MADE THIS EARLY
ANYWAY. SOME OF THE MORE DECOUPLING-PRONE AREAS IN THE FOOTHILLS NEAR
THE BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT COULD SEE A LIGHT FREEZE, SO SOME
CONSIDERATION COULD BE GIVEN TO FREEZE WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. STILL
TOO EARLY FOR A WATCH GIVEN INSUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT WINDS BACK TO SW'LY SATURDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
RETURN AHEAD OF DIGGING TROUGH IN THE MID-SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH STILL 2-5 BELOW NORMAL
IN MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM THU: UPPER LOW WILL SINK SOUTHWARD THRU THE MID-MS
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. A BAROCLINIC ZONE GINS UP AS THIS OCCURS,
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN KY. MODELS REMAIN IN
SURPRISINGLY POOR AGREEMENT GIVEN THIS NOW IS SOON ENOUGH TO FALL
INTO THE RANGE OF THE NAM, HENCE THE SPREAD IN LOCATION.
SLIGHT-CHANCE (~20%) POPS SPREAD TO THE TN/NC BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COME AND GO THRU SUNDAY. WIDE SPREAD ALSO SEEN IN 850MB TEMPS
GIVEN DIFFERING DEPICTIONS OF WAA OVER OUR AREA RELATED TO THE LOW
POSITION. JUDGING FROM PROG SOUNDINGS FROM THE AVAILABLE MODELS,
MOISTENING FROM THE TOP DOWN LOOKS MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME THAN A
SATURATED INVERSION, SO IN THOSE FEW HIGH MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WHERE
TEMPS FALL TO NEAR FREEZING, SNOW IS MENTIONED AND NOT FZRA.
REALISTICALLY IF TEMPS ARE THAT COLD IT PROBABLY WOULD BE DRY
ANYWAY.
THE MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE LATER SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE GENERALLY FALLEN INTO TWO
CAMPS, BASICALLY WHETHER THE LOW WILL REMAIN CUT OFF AND ACTIVATE A
WARM FRONT NEAR/OVER THE CWA, OR IF IT WOULD SCURRY OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC AS AN OPEN WAVE WITH LITTLE PRECIP FALLING HERE. THERE
APPEARS A GROWING CONSENSUS FOR THE FORMER, ALTHOUGH WHERE THE WARM
FRONT SETS UP REMAINS A STICKING POINT AND SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW THE
RESULTING PRECIP MISSING THE CWA. AND NOW, WITH THE LOW LOOKING TO
TRACK TO OUR SOUTH, SOME SOLUTIONS PRODUCE DEFORMATION-ZONE PRECIP
OVERHEAD. OUR FORECAST KEEPS POPS NO BETTER THAN SLIGHT-CHANCE LATE
SUNDAY THRU MONDAY, WITH A PRECIP MENTION ONLY CURRENTLY FALLING OUT
OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. EXPECT FURTHER
CHANGES. RIGHT NOW, BASED ON SFC TEMPS A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SPOTS
GET A MENTION OF SNOW IN THIS SECOND WAVE AS WELL. THE SAME IDEA
APPLIES: IT PROBABLY WILL END UP COLDER AND DRIER OR WARMER AND
WETTER. WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FILLING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, DAILY MAX TEMPS DO LOOK TO END
UP A TAD ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS BY WED.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
THE FCST AREA FROM THE SW, WITH THE LAST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE I-77 CORRIDOR. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS. CIGS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY LIFT/SCT GENERALLY FROM THE SW TO NE,
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO RETURN AT MOST SITES BY ROUGHLY 12Z.
VISBY WILL BE TRICKIER TO FCST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. THE
LINGERING MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO DRY AND WINDS LIKELY
WON'T PICK UP SUBSTANTIALLY UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING. THUS,
SOME TERMINALS WILL PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST MVFR VISBY RESTRIC-
TIONS WELL INTO THE MORNING. OTHERWISE, SCT CUMULUS/STRATOCU IN
THE 3500 TO 6000 FT RANGE IS EXPECTED THRU AT LEAST THE MORNING
HRS, ALTHOUGH SCT TO OCCASIONAL BKN MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY AT KAVL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FROM
SWLY THIS MORNING TO MORE WLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW-
END GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED. AT KAVL, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VRB OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP FROM THE NW AROUND SUNRISE.
THEY WILL REMAIN NWLY FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. IN ADDITION, MTN VALLEY
FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JCW
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JCW
LONG TERM...JCW
AVIATION...JPT
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