831
FXUS62 KGSP 301747
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1259 PM EDT THURSDAY: HEIGHTS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LOW OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS A POTENT TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS
NOW LOCATED OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND ENTIRELY OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...USHERING IN DRY AIR AND SCOURING OUT
MOST REMAINING LOW CLOUDS. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE, MAINLY
ALONG THE NC-TN BORDER, WHERE A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER PERSISTS IN
VALLEYS AND WEST-FACING SLOPES.
AT LEAST ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE ZONES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS FINALLY LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500FT LIKELY TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN...AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT
THE HIGHEST PEAKS. OTHERWISE, THOUGH, QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE NEW AIR MASS SPILLING INTO THE CAROLINAS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS A COLD ONE, WITH STRONG CAA EVIDENT IN THE
LOW-LEVELS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY DAY, AND PERSISTING AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS EVEN BY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, CLEARING IS UNDERWAY
ESSENTIALLY EVERYWHERE, BUT WITH THAT CLEARING COMES THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ONLY TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST LOW-END GUSTS OF 15-20KTS THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT, AND THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE ZONES IN PARTICULAR HAVE
A 75%+ CHANCE OF REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS. AS A RESULT,
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AVERY, MITCHELL, AND YANCEY
COUNTY, VALID FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
TODAY'S HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S, THEN
PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT.
GUSTS LOOK TO TAPER OFF SHARPLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE CORE OF
BETTER CAA TRANSLATES TO OUR EAST, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS SLACKENS. MARKEDLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, THOUGH SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, AND HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM THU: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS CREATES GOOD CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING THE
MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. THIS PUTS THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS IN
LINE FOR A SOLID FREEZE. FROST IS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NC PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN UPSTATE. HAVE GONE WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FREEZE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AS WELL, ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD A WIDESPREAD FREEZE, SO THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED THERE.
CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE
EVENTUAL SCENARIO, BUT THE OPS MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. THEY SHOW
THE LOW DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST THEN STEADILY MOVING
EAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BRINGING SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST INSTEAD OF ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH LOWS MAY
HELP SHOWERS DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY WITH QUICK
DRYING TAKING PLACE ON MONDAY AS THE LOWS MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS POP LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ALL BUT THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW CHANCE IS FEATURED. THIS
STILL LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SATURDAY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY THEN REBOUND A
LITTLE MONDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL REMOVING
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS, FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ACTIVE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 PM THU: THE FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE THE PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THEN IS SUPPRESSED THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THEN RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL, DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN GO BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BRINGING FROST CONCERNS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA TODAY. SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE
SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR, BUT ONLY IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA, AND NOT AFFECTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES. A SMATTERING
OF SCT STRATOCU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON
AT THE UPSTATE AND PIEDMONT SITES...WHILE COVERAGE APPEARS MORE
BKN/OVC STRATOCU ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. CLOUD COVER EVERYWHERE
SHOULD DIMINISH TO FEW/SKC OVERNIGHT, GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. W WIND IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, FAVORING THE NW MORE AND MORE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. GUSTS OF 15-25KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, TAPERING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER AND MORE SPORADIC
GUSTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ035-053-056-059-062>065-068-069-501>510.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NCZ033-049-050.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ101>103.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...MPR
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