836
FXUS62 KGSP 302355
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
755 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN ON SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT THURSDAY: HEIGHTS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY LOW OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS A POTENT TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION,
WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT HAVING SHIFTED EAST OFF THE COAST.
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT THE
CLOUDS, AT LEAST IN AREAS EAST OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES,
WHERE WNW UPSLOPE FLOW IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST LAYER FROM THE
TN VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS. LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS CONTINUE AS A RESULT, ALTHOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SHOWERS HAS BEEN STEADILY DIMINISHING SINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AT LEAST ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN FAVORED
UPSLOPE ZONES NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH FREEZING LEVELS FINALLY LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN
PRECIPITATION...ELEVATION-DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500FT LIKELY TO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL SNOWFLAKES
MIXING IN...WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 5500 FEET OR SO. OTHERWISE, QUIET
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. THE NEW AIR MASS
SPILLING INTO THE CAROLINAS BEHIND THE FRONT IS A COLD ONE, WITH
STRONG CAA RESULTING IN CONTINUED GUSTY MOUNTAIN WINDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WHEREAS WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE ZONES WILL LIKELY SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA
GUSTS DEVELOP TONIGHT AS NW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES. A A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY, MITCHELL, AND YANCEY COUNTY,
VALID THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE
30S IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH FROST FORMATION LIKELY IN SHELTERED
AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
GUSTS LOOK TO TAPER OFF SHARPLY FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE CORE OF
BETTER CAA TRANSLATES TO OUR EAST, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE APPALACHIANS SLACKENS. MARKEDLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, THOUGH SPORADIC GUSTS INTO THE TEENS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, AND HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE LOW TERRAIN.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 115 PM THU: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THIS CREATES GOOD CONDITIONS
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING THE
MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. THIS PUTS THE MOUNTAINS AND NC FOOTHILLS IN
LINE FOR A SOLID FREEZE. FROST IS LIKELY FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE IN THE NC PIEDMONT AND
NORTHERN UPSTATE. HAVE GONE WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE LOCATIONS
MOST LIKELY TO SEE A FREEZE. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AS WELL, ISSUED DURING THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD A WIDESPREAD FREEZE, SO THE GROWING SEASON
HAS ENDED THERE.
CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE
EVENTUAL SCENARIO, BUT THE OPS MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER. THEY SHOW
THE LOW DIVING SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST THEN STEADILY MOVING
EAST. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE LOW MOVES INTO THE
MOUNTAINS BRINGING SOME ELEVATION DEPENDENT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST INSTEAD OF ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH LOWS MAY
HELP SHOWERS DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY WITH QUICK
DRYING TAKING PLACE ON MONDAY AS THE LOWS MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA.
THE MODEL BLEND KEEPS POP LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ALL BUT THE
TN BORDER COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE LOW CHANCE IS FEATURED. THIS
STILL LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGHS SATURDAY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUNDAY THEN REBOUND A
LITTLE MONDAY. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL REMOVING
FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS, FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS
STILL ACTIVE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 PM THU: THE FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE THE PERIOD
WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE. THE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THEN IS SUPPRESSED THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THEN RISE TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL, DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN GO BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TUESDAY NIGHT, LOWS COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER BRINGING FROST CONCERNS
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR, INCREASINGLY SKC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS AT KAVL, WHERE SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A TEMPO FOR SUCH BETWEEN 02-06Z. OTHERWISE, THIS IS PRIMARILY A
WIND FORECAST...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE, GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KAVL...WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 25
KTS EXPECTED THIS EVENING, STEADILY DIMINISHING TOWARD DAYBREAK
AND INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NCZ035-053-056-059-062>065-068-069-501>510.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR SCZ101>103.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...JDL/MPR
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL
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