602
FXUS62 KGSP 311034
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
634 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER WITH MILD DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT
RAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING
TREND RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 630 AM EDT FRIDAY: STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE TN/NC BORDER
ARE KEEPING GUSTS UP OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SLOWLY CREEP DOWNWARD. SO THE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MITCHELL, AVERY AND YANCEY COUNTIES
THROUGH 8AM. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUIET DOWN AS THE LATE
MORNING HOURS MARCH ON. MEANWHILE, FLOW ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY
BROAD, FILTERING IN DRIER AIR THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MODELED
SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN AND DROP DEWPOINTS LOWER THAN NBM. THIS
SHOULDN'T HAVE A DRASTIC AFFECT ON THE RH, BUT EXPECT AREAS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 30-40 PERCENT RANGE.
AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WIND GUSTS STICK AROUND AND SLOWLY DIMINISH BY FRIDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST SO FAR
THIS SEASON, WITH MOST OF THE AREA DIPPING TO OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING. A PORTION OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE
WARNING WITH THE REMAINING AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS IN A FREEZE
WATCH FROM 2AM THROUGH 9AM SATURDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH CALMER
WINDS EXPECTED AND CLEAR SKIES, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
ANTICIPATED. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR PATCHY FROST ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. FOR THIS, OUTSIDE OF THE
WATCHES/WARNINGS FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES, A FROST ADVISORY
WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT FROM 2AM THROUGH 9AM SATURDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1247 AM FRIDAY: WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SALVAGE THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE
OF NORMAL, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. AS FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST WOULD
BE SO MUCH MORE INTERESTING IF IT WERE A MONTH LATER, BUT AS IT IS
NOT, WE MAY ONLY GET SOME WINTRY PRECIP ON THE TOPS OF THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. THE CULPRIT WILL BE A COMPACT MID/UPPER LOW
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN MAKING IT ALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IT'S GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR
WHEN WE START TO LOOK FOR COMPACT UPPER LOWS SUCH AS THIS ONE,
WITH A WELL OF COLD AIR ALOFT, TO GIVE US A QUICK SHOT OF EARLY
WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS, LIKE WE HAD BACK IN
2014. THIS ONE, HOWEVER, LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ON TRACK TO DIVE
TOO FAR WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA TO BRING THE COLD AIR ALOFT
ACROSS THE MTNS, AND WE ALSO FAIL TO GET THE BENEFIT OF ANY LEE
CYCLOGENESIS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE OLD ECMWF, BUT THAT MODEL
OPENS UP THE LOW AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT MODIFIES TOO MUCH. WE ARE
LEFT WITH SMALL CHANCES OF A COLD RAIN BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
OVER THE MTNS. THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW CLOSE TO
THE COAST ANY SORT OF CYCLOGENESIS HAPPENS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
AND THE MODEL BLEND ENDS UP REALLY DOWNPLAYING OUR PRECIP CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
SEASONALLY COOL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT LOWS WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH WARMER OUTSIDE THE MTNS BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER TO KEEP THE FROST MOSTLY AT BAY. NOTE THAT THE NC MOUNTAIN
ZONES ARE SHUT OFF FOR FROST/FREEZE ON 1 NOVEMBER EITHER WAY,
SO THEY WILL NO LONGER BE IN PLAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 AM FRIDAY: THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN AS
WE TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
AWAY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH PRESSURE
AND A WARMING TREND BACK TO NORMAL BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES SLOWLY STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE IN THE NRN STREAM DIGS A TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A DRY COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ODDLY ENOUGH, BEHIND THE FRONT, THURSDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY BECAUSE OF STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST
OF THE MTNS. TEMPS COOL BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY THOUGH, AS
A STRONG UPPER TROF COMES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES THURSDAY
AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE MOUNTAIN TERMINALS
AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES. A FEW LOW END GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT
KAVL THROUGH 00Z. MOST OTHER SITES SHOULD SEE WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP AFTER SUNRISE. KCLT COULD SEE LOW END GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET. CALMER AND VRB WINDS LIKELY TO
ROUND OUT THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD ALSO STAY SKC WITHOUT ANY
ISSUES.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS BY SUNDAY POSSIBLE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ017.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ018-026-
028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-059-
062>065-503-505-506.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NCZ035-056-068-069-501-502-504-507>510.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ036-037-
057-070>072-082.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ101>103.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ008>014-
019-104>109.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP
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