130
FXUS62 KGSP 311751
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND RETURN FOR MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 146 PM EDT FRIDAY: BROAD UPPER TROUGHINESS WILL HANGOUT
OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A CLOSED LOW DIGS INTO THE
MIDWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT INTO ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT, HELPING TO RELAX THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TANK BELOW
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS. THE ONE CAVEAT IS WHETHER OR NOT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE VARY DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, SO LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING (OR VERY CLOSE TO) TEMPERATURES
IN SHELTERED AREAS, MOUNTAIN VALLEYS, AND RURAL AREAS. DECIDED TO
GO WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THAT
ARE STILL ACTIVATED VIA END OF GROWING SEASON AS NOVEMBER 2ND IS
THE OFFICIAL END AND TEMPERATURES BEING CLOSE ENOUGH TO CALL IT
FOR LIKELY THE LAST FREEZE/FROST PRODUCT OF THE YEAR. ELSEWHERE,
DECIDED TO GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY AND PRETTY MUCH LOOKS LIKE A
SLAM DUNK WITH LIGHT WINDS, TIGHT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, CLEAR SKIES,
AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. ONE COUNTY THAT STANDS
OUT IN THE FREEZE/FROST PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT IS POLK COUNTY (NC),
BUT THE ISOTHERMAL BELT TENDS TO BE ACTIVATED IN THIS PART OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AROUND THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND WILL HOLD
MOST OF THE COUNTY ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
IN THE COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL 6-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 30S AND SOME 20S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CAROLINAS THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME PERIOD SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START OUT
THE DAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO CREATE A
MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE FEATURE
TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NEAR THE MID AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. IN THIS CASE, THE JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA AND BRING IN AN INCREASE IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAINS DRY AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUN 4-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM FRIDAY: EVEN AT THIS LATE DATE, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
VARY REGARDING THE UPPER LOW FOR THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OF COURSE,
THIS SHOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING GIVEN MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH UPPER
LOWS IN GENERAL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LOW MOVING DIRECTLY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS IT MOVING
BY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THAT SAID, WHILE THE GFS HAS GREATER
COVERAGE OF PRECIP, IT KEEPS AMOUNTS LIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES EAST
RELATIVELY QUICKLY. THE OTHER GUIDANCE LIMITS ANY PRECIP TO VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND I-77 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE MODEL BLEND HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS WITH CHANCE POP
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT QPF. TEMPS COULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SOME VERY HIGH ELEVATION LIGHT SNOW. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING NEARLY STEADY
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT EXCEPT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY COOL A FEW
DEGREES. HIGHS SUNDAY AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WARMING TO
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 110 PM FRIDAY: DRY AND QUITE WEATHER RETURN TUESDAY AS THE
FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AS WELL BEFORE A
DRY COLD FRONT PASSES BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS RISE
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE REMAIN NEAR STEADY FOR ALL BUT
THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY WHERE THEY DROP A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS THEN
FALL TO AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. LOWS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL MONDAY NIGHT, REMAIN NEARLY STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT, RISE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN FALL BACK TO AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. WINDS
CONTINUE TO TOGGLE BETWEEN WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WITH LOW-END
GUSTS. WIND GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT AS MOST SITES SHOULD GO
MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR FAVOR A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
MORE VARIABILITY. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THAT'S ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
IT.
OUTLOOK: NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY,
WHICH COULD BRING IN ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN LATER MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
CAN'T RULE OUT MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ010-017.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ018-026-
028-029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ053-059-
062>065-501>509.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
056-057-068>072-082-510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ101>103.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ008>014-
019-104>109.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...CAC
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