073
FXUS62 KGSP 011020
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
620 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND RETURN
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SATURDAY: THE GENERAL PATTERN IS RATHER QUIET FOR
MOST OF THE NEAR TERM AS THE CWA REMAINS LOCKED INTO BROAD FLOW
ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS,
THE BIGGEST WEATHER ELEMENT OF MENTION ARE THE FREEZING AND NEAR
FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. A FREEZE WARNING FOR A
PORTION OF THE MOUNTAINS AND A FROST ADVISORY ELSEWHERE ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH 9AM. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FOR TODAY, INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTHWARD AND
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GUIDANCE SHOWS MINIMAL IMPACT QPF
RESPONSE AS THE AIR IS QUITE DRY. IF ANY MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR THE
TN/NC BORDER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-35%) OF PRECIP TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPS AT THE HIGH ELEVATIONS, A QUICK BURST OF SNOW
IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK, BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE
50S AND 60S TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1225 AM SATURDAY: THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER LOW
EXPECTED TO ROLL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
BUT FORTUNATELY THOSE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION DON'T TRANSLATE INTO
ANY MAJOR FORECAST PROBLEMS. THE SFC REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS WEAK AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS CLOSED OFF FROM MUCH IN THE WAY
OF GULF MOISTURE, SO PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN MODEST AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOUT FIVE DEGREES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. BY SUNDAY NIGHT,
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
SO PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TO OUR EAST IN RESPONSE TO ALL THE
FORCING THE DEVELOPING LOW ENTAILS. AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES
WAS EXPECTED FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION, GIVEN
ENOUGH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME DECENT FORCING TRAVERSING
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM, BUT
CHANCES STILL LOOK BETTER TO OUR EAST. THE NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE THERMAL STRUCTURE WOULD REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
OTHER THAN COLD RAIN EXCEPT PERHAPS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6K FEET. ANY
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN ABRUPT END BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST, SO MONDAY SHOULD BE A TRANSITION DAY INTO A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. CLEARING
SKY AND SOME DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TOWARD
NORMAL FOR THE HIGH TEMPS MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH THAT BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST ON MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT PARTICULARLY COOL, SO MIN TEMPS
DON'T LOOK COOL ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY FROST CONCERNS OUTSIDE THE MTNS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1247 AM SATURDAY: THE BETTER PART OF THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS
FAIR AND QUIET ACROSS THE REGION AS WE ENJOY A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE PUSHING A BOUNDARY THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT
THE LATEST RUNS HAVE A WEAK WAVE AND NO RESPONSE ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA. SO, LOOKS LIKE A WARMING TREND BACK
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THURSDAY, WHEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD GIVE US OUR WARMEST DAY IN SPITE OF THE FRONT HAVING GONE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT. NOT AS MUCH OF A DROPOFF IS SEEN IN THE TEMPS FOR
FRIDAY, PARTLY BECAUSE THE NEW MODEL RUNS HAVE SPED UP THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SHORT WAVE TROF COMING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS, SUCH THAT WARM ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMMENCES
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEW BLEND ALSO INTRODUCES SOME PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT RELATIVELY
POOR MOISTURE FLUX LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR ONCE AGAIN, SO
PRECIP WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT EAST OF THE MTNS. NOTE THE TIMING
COULD EASILY SLIP, BUT FOR NOW NEXT SATURDAY LOOKS DRY. TEMPS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN VRB BUT WILL PREVAIL A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AFTER 00Z, WINDS
BECOME CALM/VRB ONCE AGAIN. NO CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED.
A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH SKIES BECOMING MORE OVC AT KAVL NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ010-017.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ018-026-028-
029.
NC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ053-059-
062>065-501>509.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
057-068>072-082-510.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ101>103.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008>014-019-
104>109.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP
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