968
FXUS62 KGSP 011900
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND RETURN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 144 PM EDT SATURDAY: SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ACCOMPANY A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY HELPING
TO INDUCE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BECOME
MORE APPARENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS IN CONTROL SLIPS OFFSHORE
IN RESPONSE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
PRECIP OVER THE SMOKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE BETWEEN 4000-5000', SO ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE,
JUST INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWFA, LEADING TO LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS,
WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OF FROST.
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE COME
REALIZED OVER THE GULF STREAM AND BRING IN BETTER QPF RESPONSE OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CAMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 AND THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PIVOTS
WEST FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, EXPECT MOST
OF THE AREA TO BE LOCKED INTO BETTER CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL LIMIT
OVERALL INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD, WHILE BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES OCCUR IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY: CONSISTENCY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
HAS IMPROVED WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE POTENT
CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THIS LOW TO BE JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD,
WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL EFFECTIVELY
SHUT DOWN NOTABLE MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF;
THEREFORE, ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PIVOTS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, SIMULTANEOUS COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE EASTERNMOST
ZONES OF OUR WARNING AREA, REFLECTED IN THE HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS
FORECASTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. A SMALL AXIS OF
NEEDED 0.25-0.50" RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE UNDERNEATH A
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BEFORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE 6000 FEET, WHERE
LIGHT, INSIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ALL PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER
TO MID-30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL QUICKLY RETURN OUR AREA TO DRY WEATHER WITH
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALLOWING HIGHS TO MODERATE
3-6 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING, PERMITTING
AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING; HOWEVER, WITH A MILD SOURCE AIRMASS,
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE LOWS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER, THEY GENERALLY
WILL BE TOO WARM TO WARRANT FROST CONCERNS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, EQUIVALENT TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 0200 PM SATURDAY: A PROGRESSIVE, AND RELATIVELY FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
WHEN A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER,
WHICH WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AREA WIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 EACH DAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
WITH LOWER 70S PROMINENT ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID-40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
EACH MORNING. THE COOLEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH
UPPER 30S CREEPING INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
ANY FREEZING LOWS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
THE NEXT RAPIDLY PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY
BY FRIDAY AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN
THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THICKNESSES LOOK TO SUPPRESS FRIDAY HIGHS BY
A FEW DEGREES, BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
LACKING ANY APPRECIABLE RETURN FLOW, THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TOO
MOISTURE STARVED TO BRING ANY RAINFALL TO THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE AND LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN,
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT HEADING INTO SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, POSTING NO CONCERN.
INSTEAD, EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW, SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL SATURDAY WITH HIGH 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT FAVOR A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD BASES GRADUALLY
LOWER DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER KCLT, WHERE
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND LOW-END VFR CLOUDS DEVELOP BY THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIDN'T MAKE A SHOWER MENTION AT
THIS TIME, BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED BY THE 00Z TAF UPDATE
DEPENDING ON LATEST TRENDS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO HINTED AT
MVFR CIGS BY SUNDAY EVENING NEAR KCLT, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE
TRENDS AS WELL. OTHERWISE, BKN/OVC MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS GRADUALLY PICKING UP
WITH A PERSISTENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. KAVL WITH TOGGLE TO
A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK. DRY AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...CAC
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