861
FXUS62 KGSP 020137
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
937 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST. DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 930 PM EDT SATURDAY: CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THIS EVENING
HAVE ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED SHARPLY SINCE SUNSET, WITH MID
40S COMMON ACROSS THE NC AND SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT, LOW 50S IN
URBAN CENTERS SUCH AS KCLT, LOWER 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE
ROUGHLY 3500 FT, AND 30S ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES ABOVE 5000 FT. A
FEW PIEDMONT LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THEIR PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST LOWS. WHILE HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST, THESE CLOUDS REMAIN THIN AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS, WHERE
INCREASING MID AND LOWER CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY ARRIVE LATE.
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER RADIATIONAL COOLING OBSERVED THIS
EVENING, THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A
FEW DEGREES, WEIGHTED TOWARD THE 25TH PERCENTILE IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND THE 10TH PERCENTILE IN SOME OF THE COOLER PIEDMONT VALLEYS. THIS
RESULTS IN FORECAST LOWS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. PATCHY FROST WAS ADDED TO THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, MAINLY ACROSS THE NC-SC PIEDMONT,
WHERE UPDATED FORECAST LOWS FALL IN THE 36 TO 37 DEGREE RANGE.
OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LOW.
PREVIOUS FORECAST (144 PM EDT SATURDAY): SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
WILL ACCOMPANY A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH FROM THE MID-MS
VALLEY HELPING TO INDUCE WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
BECOME MORE APPARENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS IN CONTROL SLIPS OFFSHORE
IN RESPONSE. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME
PRECIP OVER THE SMOKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH FREEZING LEVELS
WILL BE BETWEEN 4000-5000', SO ANY WINTRY PRECIP WILL REMAIN IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE,
JUST INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWFA, LEADING TO LESS THAN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS,
WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY WIDESPREAD CONCERNS OF FROST.
AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE LOWER TN VALLEY AND
DEEP SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE COME
REALIZED OVER THE GULF STREAM AND BRING IN BETTER QPF RESPONSE OVER
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CAMS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING
SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 AND THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS PIVOTS
WEST FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, EXPECT MOST
OF THE AREA TO BE LOCKED INTO BETTER CLOUD COVER, WHICH WILL LIMIT
OVERALL INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD, WHILE BETTER SHOWER
CHANCES OCCUR IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. AS A RESULT, AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM SATURDAY: CONSISTENCY BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
HAS IMPROVED WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE POTENT
CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT THE CENTER OF THIS LOW TO BE JUST
TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD,
WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO OUR EAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL EFFECTIVELY
SHUT DOWN NOTABLE MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF;
THEREFORE, ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PIVOTS OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, SIMULTANEOUS COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE EASTERNMOST
ZONES OF OUR WARNING AREA, REFLECTED IN THE HIGHER-END CHANCE POPS
FORECASTED NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-77 CORRIDOR. A SMALL AXIS OF
NEEDED 0.25-0.50" RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THIS ZONE UNDERNEATH A
DEFORMATION AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS BEFORE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELEVATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE 6000 FEET, WHERE
LIGHT, INSIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ALL PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER
TO MID-30S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL QUICKLY RETURN OUR AREA TO DRY WEATHER WITH
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALLOWING HIGHS TO MODERATE
3-6 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TUESDAY MORNING, PERMITTING
AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING; HOWEVER, WITH A MILD SOURCE AIRMASS,
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE LOWS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER, THEY GENERALLY
WILL BE TOO WARM TO WARRANT FROST CONCERNS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS SLIDES TO OUR EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, EQUIVALENT TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 0200 PM SATURDAY: A PROGRESSIVE AND RELATIVELY FLAT
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CONUS UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
WHEN A TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, IT WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER,
WHICH WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM AREA WIDE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY TO REACH THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 EACH DAY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS,
WITH LOWER 70S PROMINENT ACROSS THE LAKELANDS AND UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MID-40S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
EACH MORNING. THE COOLEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING WITH
UPPER 30S CREEPING INTO THE NC PIEDMONT AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
ANY FREEZING LOWS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS.
THE NEXT RAPIDLY PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY
BY FRIDAY AND THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN
THE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO JUSTIFY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND LOWER THICKNESSES LOOK TO SUPPRESS FRIDAY HIGHS BY
A FEW DEGREES, BUT STILL GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.
LACKING ANY APPRECIABLE RETURN FLOW, THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TOO
MOISTURE STARVED TO BRING ANY RAINFALL TO THE PIEDMONT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. DUE TO
THE CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE AND LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN,
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT HEADING INTO SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, POSING NO CONCERN.
INSTEAD, EXPECT TEMPS TO QUICKLY REBOUND UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND
DOWNSLOPING FLOW, SETTING UP A BEAUTIFUL SATURDAY WITH HIGH 2-4
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: WINDS WERE CALM AT ALL TERMINALS AT THE
START OF THE 00Z TAFS, BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY BE LIGHT (UNDER 5 KT)
AND VARIABLE THRU SUNRISE. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE LATEST LAMP
MOS AND NBM SUPPORTS NOT PUTTING ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EVEN
FOR THE FOG-PRONE SITE, KAVL, WITH A 90 AND 85 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF VISIBILITY REMAINING VFR TONIGHT, RESPECTIVELY. HIGH CLOUDS WITH
BASES BETWEEN 15-25 KFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH FROM THE
WEST THIS EVENING.
CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT GRADUALLY LOWER
TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KFT. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND BETWEEN 4-8
KT IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KAVL WHERE THE
FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY.
A WEAK COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST OFF THE THE CAROLINA
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE LOW ORGANIZES,
THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD REACH AS FAR WEST
AS THE NC-SC PIEDMONT AFTER SUNSET. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SEEING
ANY WEATHER-RELATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY, AS YOU GO
WESTWARD. NONETHELESS, A PROB30 GROUP WITH LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WERE INTRODUCED AT THE VERY END OF THE 30-HR TAF FOR
KCLT. THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS AT KCLT INCREASE TO 25 PERCENT
BEFORE 06Z MONDAY AND PEAKS TO NEAR 50 PERCENT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
(BEYOND THE TAF VALID TIME).
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK. DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...CAC/JRK
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...JRK
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