918
FXUS62 KGSP 020504
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
104 AM EDT SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER
THAT PASSES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING
TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SUCCESSION OF WEAK COLD FRONTS
MAY BRING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 100 AM EDT SUNDAY: AN UPPER LOW SWINGS SOUTHWARD AND CROSSES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE RETURN IS NONEXISTENT AHEAD
OF THE LOW. BEFORE DAYBREAK, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE TN/NC BORDER. GIVEN THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES, THERE COULD
BE A QUICK BURST OF SNOWFLAKES, BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME, GUIDANCE
INCREASES DPVA IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA. THOUGH THE FORCING
AND UPPER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS IS DECENT, THE LACK OF MOISTURE RESULTS
IN A LOWER QPF RESPONSE. BASICALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-
35%) OF SHOWERS WITH POP INCREASING (45-55%) AT THE FAR EASTERN
FRINGE IN THE NC PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENTLY, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM 0.01-0.30" FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THESE COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BETTER FORCING SETS UP. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CALM WINDS COULD DROP TEMPS
TO IF NOT A TICK BELOW FORECASTED IN A FEW AREAS. IT WILL BE COLD
AND PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY STAYS WELL ABOVE
FREEZING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1240 AM SUNDAY: THE TROF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, BY WHICH
TIME PRECIP SHOULD HAVE ENDED IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS, AND THAT
FEATURE SHOULD MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE FCST
AREA THRU THE DAY. A QUICK TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE INTO TUESDAY, SUPPORTING DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THAT ALLOWS TEMPS TO RETURN CLOSE TO NORMAL. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE
JUST WARM ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY FROST POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON RH LOOKS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY
FIRE DANGER. LOOKS LIKE MORE CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM SUNDAY: THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE QUASI-ZONAL
PATTERN ALOFT PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES WITH REGARD TO THE NRN STREAM
SHORT WAVE NOT AMPLIFYING NEARLY AS MUCH, TO THE POINT WHERE THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS A TOTAL NON-FACTOR THIS FAR SOUTH. INSTEAD,
WE GET A CONTINUATION OF THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT TO OUR WEST
AS A BROAD SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THE MODEL BLEND TENDS TO DOWNPLAY
THE CHANCES OF PRECIP MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY OVER
CONCERNS ABOUT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
APPEARS TO BE ALONE IN ITS SOLUTION OF GULF MOISTURE INFLUX, SO THAT
WETTER-LOOKING SOLUTION IS NOT FAVORED YET. THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT APPEARS TO DO LITTLE FOR OUR OVERALL SENSIBLE
WEATHER AS THERE IS BARELY A CHANGE IN TEMPS WITH THE NEW AIR MASS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS MOST OF THE SITES. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN. WINDS
REMAIN CALM ACROSS ALL SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIGHTLY PICKING UP. SITES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD HAVE LIGHT
N/NE WINDS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES IN TONIGHT AT KCLT, SO A
PROB30 SHOULD SUFFICE FROM 04Z-09Z. SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT BUT MVFR
CIGS/VSBY ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
IFR IF THESE SHOWERS PICK UP, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT INTO
THE TAF AT THIS TIME. NO OTHER RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TO START THE WEEK. DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP
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