609
FXUS62 KGSP 021937
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, WHEN A SUCCESSION OF WEAK COLD FRONTS MAY BEING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1256 PM EDT SUNDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE
CWFA LATER TODAY AND TAP INTO THE GULF STREAM, LEADING TO SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
AND THE PRECIP SHIELD BROADENS, LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PIVOT
JUST EAST OF THE CWFA. THIS FORCING COULD BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND EXTEND THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD TOWARDS THE I-77 CORRIDOR. CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT THIS GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. QPF RESPONSE
WILL BE LIGHT AND THE PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THIS REGION EARLY MORNING
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW AND COASTAL LOW SHIFT OFFSHORE AS THE
UPPER FEATURE PHASES WITHIN THE NORTHERN JET STREAK. SOME PRECIP
IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SAVANNAH VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WINTRY
PRECIP IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BALSAMS BEFORE THE PRECIP
ENDS AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT, WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG AND
EAST OF I-77 COULD REMAIN LOCKED INTO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH
A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RUN AT
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT.
DRIER DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND ALLOWING
FOR AMPLE INSOLATION, TO GO ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO JUST A FEW
TICKS BELOW NORMAL AND THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE RECEIVED
IN OVER A WEEK FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY: A QUIET AND PLEASANT SHORT-TERM PERIOD IS
IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS
OUT BEHIND THE CLOSED LOW RAPIDLY MOVING EAST. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY, THEN DRIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST FOR WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. THEREFORE, FOLLOWING NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
TUESDAY, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT AND 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THIS TRANSLATES TO THE LOWER 70S IN BOTH LOCALES. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT POSE A FROST CONCERN EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY MORNING, AND LOWS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DRY OUT FOLLOWING LATE OCTOBER RAINS, RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 30-35% IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 100 PM SUNDAY: QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AS A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY PROPAGATES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AS STATED IN PREVIOUS PACKAGES, ALL THIS WAVE WILL MANAGE TO DO
ACROSS OUR AREA IS PUSH THROUGH A VERY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED
COLD FRONT. THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING RESULTS
IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHWEST NC PIEDMONT
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGHS
FURTHER SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THIS WEAK FRONT LATER THURSDAY AND
QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW RAPIDLY VEERS SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MARCHING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
DECLINING THICKNESSES AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ARE LIKELY TO SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 2-4 DEGREES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
POPS INCREASE LATER FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE A "WETTER" SOLUTION, BUT
THE CANADIAN HAS ALSO TRENDED WETTER AND THIS IS BEING REFLECTED
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS WELL. AS A RESULT, NBM POPS HAVE
INCREASED RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS CYCLES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXPANDING INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.
INSIGNIFICANT FORCING, FAST FRONTAL MOTION, AND LIMITED RETURN
FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT, AND DRY WEATHER WILL QUICKLY
RETURN TO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPING FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SATURDAY HIGHS TO REBOUND TO THE LOWER 70S
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH UPPER 60S EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. THESE TEMPS ARE 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WELL-ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING
AS YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. ABSENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND DECREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT, HIGHS MAY
DROP BACK TO "ONLY" SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS MOST OF THE SITES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROAM
OVERHEAD WITH FEW/SCT LOW-END VFR CU DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH. WINDS
ARE LIGHT AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED TO A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE ALL SITES GRADUALLY
VEER TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE OVER KCLT LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST AND THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD ENCROACH THE TERMINAL. AS A RESULT, PLACED A
PROB30 FOR -RA AND ASSOCIATED MVFR RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS
SHOULD CLEAR FOR MONDAY WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
HOLDING ONTO A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...JMP
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...CP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page