034
FXUS62 KGSP 030521
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1221 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1156 PM EDT SUNDAY: WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER GA, SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SHOWERS
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GA. THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER
LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MIGHT NOT MAKE IT
VERY FAR NORTH INTO THE FCST AREA BEFORE IT ROTATES AROUND TO THE
WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PASS. MEANWHILE, THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT SEEIN OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST AS WELL. THE FCST HOLDS ONTO A PRECIP CHANCE EAST OF
I-77 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BASED MAINLY ON THE MESOSCALE MODELS,
BUT THE RADAR TREND SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST BY
DAYBREAK. THAT MEANS FOR THE MOST PART THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL
BE KIND OF QUIET WITH CLOUDS LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA, AND ALONG THE TN BORDER.
TODAY SHOULD BE THE TRANSITION TO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN ONCE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ALONG WITH A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE THRU THE DAY, AND THE PART OF
THE HIGH CENTER SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE AIR MASS COMING IN WITH THE SFC HIGH IS
MORE SRN STREAM, SO TEMPS ACTUALLY CLIMB BACK UP CLOSE TO NORMAL
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUN. TONIGHT, IN SPITE OF CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT WIND, LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL, AND THUS FROST SHOULD
BE JUST OUT OF REACH FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1205 AM EST MONDAY: PICKING UP ON TUESDAY, THE WEATHER OVERALL
LOOKS TO BE QUIET AND UNEVENTFUL. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH LOCKS THE AREA
INTO A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH DOMINATES THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS, HOWEVER, DOES NOT AFFECT THE CWA OTHER THAN
INCREASING WINDS AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS, BUT WELL
BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS, MOISTURE ALSO TICKS UP. TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE INTO THE
JUST ABOVE NORMAL RANGE BY WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ALSO WARM AS
THE ADDED MOISTURE KEEPS FREEZING TEMPS AWAY IN THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1210 AM EST MONDAY: LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE FORECAST, MUCH OF
THE SAME QUIET AND DRY PATTERN REMAINS INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT.
GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND CHANGES AS THE PATTERN FLIPS. BY FRIDAY,
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE, A
TROUGH STARTS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A
SURFACE LOW COULD FORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DRAG SOME SORT OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME QPF RESPONSE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS (40-55%) WITH SLIGHT CHANCE (15-35%) ELSEWHERE. THESE POPS
WILL CHANGE BUT THE MAIN POINT IS A WETTER PATTERN EMERGES TO START
THE WEEKEND. LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODEL
GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A STRONG CP AIRMASS SPILLING INTO THE CONUS
FROM CANADA, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. IT'S
ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SORT OF PRECIP WITH THIS AIRMASS, BUT
IT'S WAY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT ANY DETAILS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE WARMER AND A TICK ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE DIPPING A BIT AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: STARTING OUT WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS JUST TO
THE EAST OF KCLT, SO THAT'S THE PROBLEM AREA. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
PERIOD OF MVFR RESTRICTIONS CREEPING IN FROM THE EAST THRU DAYBREAK,
SO THE FCST WILL KEEP THAT MVFR TEMPORARILY FOR THE FIRST FOUR HOURS
OR SO, BUT IF SATELLITE TRENDS ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THREAT WILL
BE TO THE EAST BY THE TIME OPERATIONS RAMP UP IN THE MORNING. THE
REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS VFR AT ALL TERMINALS. AN UPPER LOW OVER
GA WILL ROTATE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY, BRINGING THE
WIND AROUND TO N AND NW. CLOUDS WILL BE SPARSE. THE AIR MASS LOOKS
TOO DRY FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART
OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM
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