707
FXUS62 KGSP 040525
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1225 AM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PASSING COLD FRONT
COULD BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A SECOND,
STRONGER FRONT ON SUNDAY, USHERS IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1203 AM EST TUESDAY: LOOKS LIKE SOME CLASSIC AUTUMN WEATHER
FOR THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WE ENJOY CLEAR SKY AND
LIGHT WIND COURTESY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY-ZONAL AND QUIET. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL. IF THERE IS ANY CONTROVERSY, IT MIGHT BE
THE AFTERNOON RH. PROFILES SUGGEST THAT DEWPOINT WILL PROBABLY MIX
OUT TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST, WHICH COULD
BRING THE MIN RH DOWN CLOSE TO 30 PCT IN SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT. FORTUNATELY, WIND WILL BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1205 AM EST TUESDAY: PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY, THE WEATHER
OVERALL REMAINS QUIET AND UNIMPRESSIVE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS
SHOVED SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMS ACROSS THE NE, BUT
REMAINS TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE ANY IMPACT ON THE CWA. GUIDANCE DOES
INCREASE WINDS AS THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PICK UP AGAIN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT. NONE OF
THESE WINDS LOOK TO BE IMPACTFUL AND WELL BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
THAT COULD MIX DOWN RH VALUES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE 30-40
PERCENT RANGE. A SMALL CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE A BIT GUSTY, 15-20 MPH. AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS,
MOISTURE ALSO TICKS UP A TAD. TEMPERATURES STEADILY RISE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. OVERNIGHT TEMPS ALSO WARM
AS THE ADDED MOISTURE KEEPS FREEZING TEMPS AWAY FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1210 AM EST TUESDAY: BY THE WEEKEND, A PATTERN CHANGE
COMMENCES. BY FRIDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LOW
FORMING OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE, A TROUGH STARTS TO DIP DOWN INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DRAGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOME
QPF RESPONSE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST DATA INCREASES THE POP
CHANCES. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS (50-
80%) WITH A CHANCE (30-50%) ELSEWHERE. THOUGH POPS HAVE INCREASED,
THE QPF RESPONSE AS OF NOW IS NEARLY THE SAME. THE FURTHEST NC
MOUNTAINS HAVE ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 0.5", WHICH MEANS THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR THIS FRONT
TO BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION. ONCE THIS FRONT PASSES, MODELS TURN TO
ANOTHER FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE A MUCH STRONGER CP
AIRMASS SPILLING INTO THE CONUS FROM CANADA, BRINGING COLDER TEMPS
AND DRIER AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SORT OF PRECIP AS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE TN/NC BORDER, BUT IT'S WAY TOO EARLY TO
PINPOINT ANY DETAILS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE WARMER AND A TICK
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF THE COLDER AIRMASS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF LOW STRATUS OR
FOG IN THE MTN VALLEYS. THE SFC HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN EVEN GREATER CHANCE THAT LIGHT WIND WOULD
COME AROUND TO S OR SW BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WIND SHOULD GO LIGHT
AGAIN WITH SUNSET. AS FOR CLOUDS, PERHAPS ONLY SOME THIN CIRRUS.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...PM
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