045
FXUS62 KGSP 041807
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
107 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A PASSING COLD FRONT COULD BRING
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. A SECOND, STRONGER FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH ON SUNDAY, USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 12:45 PM EST TUESDAY: OTHER THAN A FEW VERY THIN HIGH
CIRRUS, WE REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS OUR AREA, COURTESY OF
BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE HIGH
WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD THRU THE NEAR-TERM PERIOD AND
WILL BE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN S TO SW THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TOMORROW. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER EARLY WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, DESPITE THE
CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT. OTHER-
WISE, THE DRY, SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS PICKING UP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOW-END
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE WARMER ON WEDNESDAY WITH VALUES
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF OUR LOWER TERRAIN AND IN THE MTN
VALLEYS. THE GUSTY WINDS COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY DRY DEWPTS
PROMPTED NCFS TO REQUEST A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY.
IT RUNS FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM AND COVERS ALL OF OUR NC ZONES EXCEPT
FOR OUR WESTERN-MOST TIER OF COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST TUESDAY: QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THRU FRIDAY, AS A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ENTERS
THE GREAT PLAINS. AT THE SFC, A TRANSIENT HIGH WILL TRACK FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THURSDAY, REINFORCING SOME COOLER
AIR SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF
THE COAST FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP AND INCREASE
CLOUD COVER. A COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH
FRIDAY AFTN, WITH PRE-FRONTAL AREA OF CONVECTION APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS
AND NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST TUESDAY: THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A POTENT TROUGH DIVING THRU THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DEEPENING A LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE MIDWEST. YET
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE TROUGH AND
FURTHER SHARPEN THE AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE DEEP SOUTH
BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THRU THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR BY EARLY MONDAY.
THE FIRST FRONT WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF MAINLY SHOWERS FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH QPF EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. POPS STILL
RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL IN THE SMOKIES TO JUST SLIGHT CHC IN THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING,
LOWS WILL BE 5-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL HELP CLEAR OUT SKIES AND ALLOW TEMPS TO ACTUALLY BE
WARMER THAN FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF MOUNTAINS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER AND POPS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
SECOND FRONT SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE A BETTER SHOT OF PRECIP EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THAN WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT ACTIVITY. BUT QPF WILL
AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO
INCREASING CLOUDS.
THEN THE COLDER AIR FINALLY ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SURGE
OF STRONG 850 MB CAA IN NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS ARE
TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER WITH THE UPSLOPE FLOW WITH SNOW LEVELS
FALLING SUNDAY EVENING. SO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS LOOK POSSIBLE IN
THE USUAL NWLY UPSLOPE AREAS THRU AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH,
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL
LAST. THE GFS IS FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED, WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE POTENTIAL
THRU THE DAY MONDAY. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT
THRU MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT. A
SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL TAF SITES THRU THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE BROAD SFC HIGH RESPON-
SIBLE FOR THIS QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD THRU
THE PERIOD, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO REMAIN S TO SW THRU THE
TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME SITES WILL LIKELY BE MORE LIGHT AND VRB
LATER TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW WITH LOW-
END GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, OTHER THAN SOME THIN
HIGH CIRRUS, SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THRU AT LEAST EARLY
FRIDAY, WITH MTN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-065-
068>072-082-501>510.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JPT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page