130
FXUS62 KGSP 121109
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH A WARMING TREND BETWEEN TODAY AND THE END
OF THE WEEK. FAIR AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 600 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR THE NC/TN BORDER
COUNTIES
2) HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
3) DRY WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTY WINDS LINGERING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
FREEZING TEMPS THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH YESTERDAY'S SNOWMELT WILL
LEAD TO BLACK ICE ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER COUNTIES SO PLAN ON
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. AN SPS REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH 9 AM AS TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER THIS TIME. HOWEVER, SHADED SPOTS ON ROADWAYS MAY SEE
BLACK ICE LINGER LONGER THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ALOFT THROUGH THE NEAR TERM WHILE
DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. INTERMITTENT LOW-
WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING UP ~10-15
DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE NC
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S. WARMER
TEMPS COMBINED WITH EXCELLENT INSOLATION WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
SNOWMELT TODAY ACROSS THE NC/TN BORDER COUNTIES. WITH DEWPOINTS
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD, FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL AS MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 30% AREA-WIDE.
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS FINALLY RETURN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4,500 FT WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS FALL AROUND OR BELOW
FREEZING AGAIN. ANY LINGERING SNOWMELT COULD FREEZE SO THE BLACK ICE
POTENTIAL WILL RETURN FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SPS FOR BLACK ICE SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED WITH THIS
POTENTIAL BEING CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE CWA.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1130 PM EST TUESDAY: QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
SHORT TERM, AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL UNDER A NWLY
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL STILL
COOL OFF NICELY BOTH NIGHTS, THANKS TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER SHALLOW MIXING BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTNS, BUT WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW AROUND 850
MB AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT, COULD SEE DEWPTS MIX OUT MORE THAN THE
NBM IS SHOWING. THIS MAY RESULT IN MINIMUM RH VALUES APPROACHING
25-30%. FORTUNATELY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FAIRLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1155 PM EST TUESDAY: AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST, WHICH WILL BRING AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT THRU THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH MAINLY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE TN BORDER WHEN
THE FRONT PASSES. MEANWHILE, THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TEMPS
COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS REMAINS
IN DISAGREEMENT ON THEIR HANDLING OF AN UPPER LOW OVER CA THAT
EJECTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH PHASING THE TROUGH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH AND
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THRU THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN SHOW MORE EASTERN CONUS RIDGING AND HAVE
THE EJECTED SHORTWAVE RIDE FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ALL THESE
CASES, THE QPF RESPONSE LOOKS RATHER WEAK, AND THE LATEST NBM HAS
TRENDED LOWER ON POPS FOR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WE SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK. IT
JUST MIGHT BE LATER IN THE WEEK THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DRY AND VFR THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LLWS
WILL LINGER AT KAND AND KAVL UNTIL ~14Z-15Z. WINDS WILL BE NW AT
KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SW/W
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING MORE WNW/NW EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW-END INTERMITTENT WIND GUSTS WILL LINGER
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING EARLY THIS EVENING.
LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KAVL SHOULD SEE LLWS RETURN AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE UPPER
CIRRUS RETURNS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. KAVL AND
KHKY WILL SEE SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN THURSDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...AR
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