059
FXUS62 KGSP 121709
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1209 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT AND WARM
WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1209 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: THE CWA REMAINS ON THE RECEIVING
END OF THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OUT
WEST SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SHUNTING RAIN CHANCES.
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OFF TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS WESTWARD,
SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE WSW THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AIDING IN A
SLOW MOISTURE RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THE CWA REMAINS IN A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVERALL THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS ARE
SLOW TO DIMINISH OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH AT THE PEAKS. A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25MPH ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BEFORE DECREASING
OVERNIGHT. BY THURSDAY, NW WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS
OF 10-15MPH IN THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS COULD DRY OUT THE AIR A
TICK OR SO BELOW FORECASTED RH IN ISOLATED AREAS. FOR NOW, RH
VALUES STAY IN THE UPPER 30 PERCENT RANGE TODAY WITH A DIP ON
THURSDAY INTO LOWER 30S AND A FEW SPOTTY AREAS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 20 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO DRASTICALLY
REBOUND FROM THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT STARTED THE WEEK. HIGHS
TODAY MAKE A RUN FOR THE MID 60S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 50S
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY, EXPECT TEMPS TO TICK UP HIGHER
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 60S OUTSIDE THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, A QUIET AND PLEASANT NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1036 AM EST WEDNESDAY: NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
WHILE THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THERE
IS A SMALL MATTER OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE TN
BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE TRIVIAL AND PROBABLY
OVERDONE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
GETS FORCED UPSLOPE LATE THAT NIGHT, THUS ACCOUNTING FOR THE SMALL
PRECIP CHANCE. FORTUNATELY, TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
BUT LIQUID. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THIS VANISHED FROM THE
FCST BEFORE THEN. IN THE MEAN TIME, A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE,
WITH TEMPS AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY, THEN TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. WINTER WILL HAVE TO WAIT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY: THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
CONSISTENCY AND SHOW A TREND TOWARD KEEPING THE FLOW MORE BLOCKED
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THE UPPER
TROFFING OFF THE EAST COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET RE-ESTABLISHED
BY A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER LOW THAT DIVES DOWN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, AND THIS FEATURE WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP
A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE AND ITS AXIS TO OUR WEST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE WAVE MOVING PAST WELL TO OUR NORTH MAY DRIVE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE MTNS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, BUT THE MOISTURE
IS SUSPECT. A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE KEPT ALONG THE TN
BORDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT THERE ISN'T ANY COLD AIR THIS
TIME AROUND SO ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIQUID. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO SAG INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE4 WEEK WHILE THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS
BLOCKED. TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST WESTERN SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO RIDE OVER THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND GETS SHEARED APART AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM COMES
INTO THE WEST COAST MID-WEEK, WHICH MORE OR LESS KEEPS THE OVERALL
FEATURES RIGHT WHERE THEY ARE. SO, FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, A
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STAYS TO OUR WEST AND WE STAY UNDER A BROAD
WNW FLOW ALOFT THAT DISCOURAGES MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. SEEMS
THAT EVENTUALLY SOME REMNANT DISTURBANCE FROM THE FIRST WESTERN
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT OUR REGION, BUT WITH POOR MOISTURE, LITTLE PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXPECTED, IF ANY EAST OF THE MTNS. ANYTHING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT ONE PROBABLY WOULDN'T REACH US BEFORE THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WSW AND W THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT MOST SITES. KAVL REMAINS NW FOR
THE PERIOD AND KCLT SHOULD TOGGLE NW BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY. A FEW
LOW-END GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT KCLT THROUGH 23Z AND 40KTS OF
LLWS AT KAVL THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z. A FEW LOW END GUSTS COULD RETURN
TO KAVL THURSDAY AFTER 12Z AS WELL.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN LATE THURSDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...CP
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