334
FXUS62 KGSP 122340
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
640 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT AND WARM WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 615 PM EDT WEDNESDAY: THE CWA REMAINS ON THE RECEIVING END OF
THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT AS AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OUT WEST SLOWLY
MIGRATES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, SHUNTING RAIN CHANCES. THE CWA REMAINS
IN A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVERALL THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY THIS EVENING BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. SETUP FAVORABLE FOR MTN WAVE CIRRUS, PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST OF I-26, SO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SEEN AT
TIMES IN THAT AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THRU THE MORNING. NW WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM DOWNSLOPE WINDS
THAT RESULT IN ELEVATED WINDS OF 10-15MPH IN THE NC PIEDMONT. THIS
COULD DRY OUT THE AIR A TICK OR SO BELOW FORECASTED RH IN ISOLATED
AREAS, ASSUMING THE CLOUDS SCATTER IN TIME TO ALLOW MAX TEMPS
TO REACH THEIR FULL POTENTIAL, WHICH DOES LOOK LIKELY. ADJUSTED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS DOWN SLIGHTLY WHICH RESULTS IN MOST
OF THE BETTER MIXED AREAS OF NC/SC SEEING DEWPOINTS SOLIDLY IN
THE 25-29 PERCENT RANGE. INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CRITERIA
ARE NOT MET THERE ON ACCOUNT OF WINDS BEING TOO LIGHT, AND IN
NE GA MINIMUM RH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND DOES NOT SOLIDLY MEET
CRITERIA BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING
TO DRASTICALLY REBOUND FROM THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT STARTED THE
WEEK. THURSDAY, EXPECT TEMPS TO TICK UP HIGHER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, A QUIET
AND PLEASANT NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1036 AM EST WEDNESDAY: NO BIG CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
WHILE THE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THERE
IS A SMALL MATTER OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE TN
BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE TRIVIAL AND PROBABLY
OVERDONE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
GETS FORCED UPSLOPE LATE THAT NIGHT, THUS ACCOUNTING FOR THE SMALL
PRECIP CHANCE. FORTUNATELY, TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANYTHING
BUT LIQUID. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THIS VANISHED FROM THE
FCST BEFORE THEN. IN THE MEAN TIME, A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE,
WITH TEMPS AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY, THEN TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. WINTER WILL HAVE TO WAIT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1100 AM EST WEDNESDAY: THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
CONSISTENCY AND SHOW A TREND TOWARD KEEPING THE FLOW MORE BLOCKED
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THE UPPER
TROFFING OFF THE EAST COAST LOOKS LIKE IT WILL GET RE-ESTABLISHED
BY A SHORT WAVE AND UPPER LOW THAT DIVES DOWN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY, AND THIS FEATURE WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP
A STRONGER UPPER RIDGE AND ITS AXIS TO OUR WEST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE WAVE MOVING PAST WELL TO OUR NORTH MAY DRIVE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE MTNS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, BUT THE MOISTURE
IS SUSPECT. A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE KEPT ALONG THE TN
BORDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT THERE ISN'T ANY COLD AIR THIS
TIME AROUND SO ANYTHING THAT FALLS SHOULD BE LIQUID. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES
TO SAG INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE4 WEEK WHILE THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS
BLOCKED. TEMPS SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST WESTERN SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO RIDE OVER THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND GETS SHEARED APART AND THEN NEXT SYSTEM COMES
INTO THE WEST COAST MID-WEEK, WHICH MORE OR LESS KEEPS THE OVERALL
FEATURES RIGHT WHERE THEY ARE. SO, FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD, A
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STAYS TO OUR WEST AND WE STAY UNDER A BROAD
WNW FLOW ALOFT THAT DISCOURAGES MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF. SEEMS
THAT EVENTUALLY SOME REMNANT DISTURBANCE FROM THE FIRST WESTERN
SYSTEM MAY AFFECT OUR REGION, BUT WITH POOR MOISTURE, LITTLE PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXPECTED, IF ANY EAST OF THE MTNS. ANYTHING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT ONE PROBABLY WOULDN'T REACH US BEFORE THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF DRY HIGH
PRESSURE. A FEW CIRRUS MAY BE SEEN OVERNIGHT, AND SETUP WILL SUPPORT
MOUNTAIN-WAVE CLOUD FORMATION BY EARLY THU MORNING, THOUGH ANY CIGS
SHOULD BE ABOVE FL200. BEST CHANCE AT KAVL/KHKY; CLOUDS THIN/SCATTER
BY MIDDAY BUT REMAIN FEW-SCT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SW TO W MOST OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT AT KAVL, WHICH REMAINS
NW FOR THE PERIOD. THE OTHER SITES WILL PICK UP FROM THE WNW TO
NW BY LATE MORNING. LLWS HAS RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS NEAR KAVL VIA THE MOUNTAIN WAVE, AND MENTION APPEARS
WARRANTED THERE THRU 12Z. A FEW LOW END GUSTS LOOK TO RETURN TO
KAVL BY LATE MORNING THU ALTHOUGH AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS CLOSER,
LESS WINDY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, WITH DIMINISHING
LLWS IMPACTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS COULD RETURN
BY SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/JCW
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JCW
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