025
FXUS62 KGSP 130549
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1249 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT AND WARM WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1200 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING
2) LIGHTER WINDS TODAY BUT BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NC MOUNTAINS
3) UPPER CLOUD COVER INCREASES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES RETURN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. UPPER CIRRUS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NC OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOSTLY
SCATTERED TO BROKEN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THINNING OUT
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MIN RHS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THIS AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THANKS
TO THE RETURN OF LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT RHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 30%. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS, BUT A FEW ISOLATED AREAS
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NC MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE TEMPS
DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 AM EST THURSDAY: QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST THRU THE WEEKEND, WHILE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REINFORCE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT FRIDAY RIGHT OVER THE AREA,
THEN SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE FRONT PASSING THRU, TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY, BUT COOL OFF
SLIGHTLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH, LIKELY JUST PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS NEAR
THE TN BORDER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST,
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. FOR FIRE WEATHER,
DEWPTS WILL MIX OUT AND COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS FRIDAY,
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH, BUT DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND LIMIT MIN RH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM EST THURSDAY: THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND BECOMING A COMPACT WAVE AS IT ENTERS
THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER A PERSISTENT
RIDGE AXIS AND MERGE WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE FLOW IS, THE WAVE COULD TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BUT THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THE WAVE TRACK THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BEEN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS 30-40% POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND
20% FOR THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO, QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WHATEVER
DOES FALL WILL BE JUST RAIN, AS TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY AGAIN THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
KAVL WILL SEE THE LLWS POTENTIAL LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK. CIRRUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES RETURN BY EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
MOST TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH KAVL AND KHKY WILL LIKELY SEE CIRRUS LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NW AT
KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND DIRECTION EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL START OUT W/WSW EARLY THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY TURNING
WNW/NW AROUND OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS COULD
RETURN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...AR
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