476
FXUS62 KGSP 131104
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
604 AM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT AND WARM WEATHER
IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 600 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
1) DRY TODAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS RETURNING
2) LIGHTER WINDS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT BREEZY NW WINDS CONTINUE
IN THE MOUNTAINS
3) UPPER CLOUD COVER INCREASES PERIODICALLY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE CLEAR SKIES RETURN LATE THIS EVENING
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WHILE DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
NEAR TERM. MOUNTAIN WAVE CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, BECOMING SCATTERED TO BROKEN OR
EVEN OVERCAST AT TIMES. CLEAR SKIES RETURN LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. DRY AGAIN TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ENDING UP A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RHS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL
THANKS TO THE RETURN OF LIGHTER WINDS. BREEZY NW WINDS LINGER ACROSS
THE NC MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT MIN RHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 30% ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1200 AM EST THURSDAY: QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST THRU THE WEEKEND, WHILE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS REINFORCE
A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT FRIDAY RIGHT OVER THE AREA,
THEN SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE GULF COAST, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH AND PUSHES THRU THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. TEMPS WARM
TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY, AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
SATURDAY. DESPITE THE FRONT PASSING THRU, TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY, BUT COOL OFF
SLIGHTLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH, LIKELY JUST PRODUCING A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS NEAR
THE TN BORDER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND SOME
INCREASING CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST,
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. FOR FIRE WEATHER,
DEWPTS WILL MIX OUT AND COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS FRIDAY,
BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS PICK UP A LITTLE ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH, BUT DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND LIMIT MIN RH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM EST THURSDAY: THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW EJECTING FROM THE WEST
COAST INTO THE ROCKIES AND BECOMING A COMPACT WAVE AS IT ENTERS
THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE OVER A PERSISTENT
RIDGE AXIS AND MERGE WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. DEPENDING ON HOW AMPLIFIED THE FLOW IS, THE WAVE COULD TRACK
FURTHER SOUTH AND CROSS NEAR THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. BUT THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THE WAVE TRACK THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. THE GFS HAS BEEN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP CHANCES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS 30-40% POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AROUND
20% FOR THE PIEDMONT TUESDAY, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO, QPF WILL BE LIGHT. WHATEVER
DOES FALL WILL BE JUST RAIN, AS TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
CIRRUS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING MOSTLY SCT TO BKN,
ALTHOUGH POTENTIALLY OVC AT TIMES. CLEAR SKIES RETURN BY LATE THIS
EVENING. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN NW AT KAVL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH GUSTS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED EAST
OF THE MOUNTAINS. WIND DIRECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
GENERALLY BE WNW/NW THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE NW/N
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS COULD
RETURN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...AR
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