307
FXUS62 KGSP 132327
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
627 PM EST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 620 PM THU: MADE AN EFFORT TO TOUCH UP DEWPOINT TRENDS PER
AFTERNOON OBS WHICH REFLECTED APPRECIABLE MIXING; LITTLE REBOUND
IN VALUES IS EXPECTED THRU THE EVENING. TONIGHT, WITH ONLY
PATCHY CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND AN INCREASINGLY LIGHT N WIND, LOWS
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID- TO UPPER-30S ACROSS THE LOW
TERRAIN AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...UP TO A CATEGORY COOLER THAN LOWS
THIS MORNING OWING TO BETTER RADIATIVE COOLING. FINALLY, ON
FRIDAY, AS THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES TO OUR
SOUTH, WINDS WILL TOGGLE AROUND TO THE SW. DAYTIME MIXING WILL
BE HAMPERED BY A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AND THE ONSET OF VERY WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION BY MID-
DAY WILL FURTHER RESTRICT THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT CRASH. WHICH
IS NOT TO SAY IT WON'T BE DRY AND A TAD BREEZY AGAIN, BUT THAT
IN GENERAL MIXING SHOULD BE LESS- EFFICIENT ON FRIDAY THAN
TODAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1112 AM EST THURSDAY: LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FCST AREA
WILL ENJOY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS
THE SMALL MATTER OF SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN POTENTIAL
ALONG THE TN BORDER UPSLOPE ZONES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
PROBLEM WILL BE THAT SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN TAKES PLACE FROM
THE WESTERN GULF ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THIS MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONT THAT IS DROPPING DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY WITH
THE OVERALL BROAD WNW FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE MOISTURE MAKES
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH, IT WOULD GET RUN UPSLOPE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT IN ENOUGH QUANTITY TO RESULT IN SOME PRECIP NEAR
THE TN BORDER. FORTUNATELY, TEMPS ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD
ONLY BE RAIN. THE FRONT GOES THROUGH IN THE MORNING AND THEN WE
DRY OUT BY THE END OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AS PER USUAL WITH WEAK
FORCING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, PRECIP CHANCES
EAST OF THE MTNS WILL REMAIN LOW. AND DON'T CALL IT A COLD FRONT,
BECAUSE THE HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY EAST OF THE MTNS ACTUALLY CLIMB A
FEW MORE DEGREES COMPARED TO SATURDAY BECAUSE OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING.
MORE OF A DRY FRONT. SO, THE TEMPS SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF TEN
DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1152 AM EST THURSDAY: ONCE WE GET OUT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THE SITUATION GETS MORE COMPLICATED AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN
THE EAST FINALLY RELENTS. AN INITIAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
US GETS KICKED OUT AND RIDES UP AND OVER THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND GETS SUCKED INTO
THE CONFLUENT WNW FLOW TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MODELS
OFTEN STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND N-S TRACK OF SUCH SYSTEMS,
SO CONFIDENCE ISN'T ESPECIALLY GOOD AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE A DRY
MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE PATTERN DOESN'T LEND ITSELF TO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN, SO EITHER WAY THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE WESTERLY UPSLOPE PARTS OF THE NC MOUNTAINS
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, AND PLACES EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE SHOULDN'T GET THEIR HOPES UP. A BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PUSHED
ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY-ISH. BY MID-WEEK, THE PATTERN FINALLY
STARTS TO BECOME PROGRESSIVE AGAIN, SO THERE'S THE PROSPECT OF
THE BOUNDARY RETURNING/REACTIVATING AS A WARM FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS AS TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM COMING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS, SO ALL BETS
ARE OFF. BUT, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN
MID-WEEK ONWARD WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME KIND OF BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES LURKING OUT ON DAY 7 AND LATE IN THE WEEK. FORTUNATELY,
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF FIVE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH NO CHANCE OF ANYTHING WINTRY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR UNDER ONLY PATCHY CIRRUS. WINDS WILL BE
PREDOMINANTLY NORTHERLY WHERE STILL BLOWING TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE
DECOUPLING WILL BRING MAINLY CALM OR LIGHT/VRB WINDS. NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOG WILL FORM IN THE SW NC MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE THE
DECOUPLING OCCURS, BUT KAVL IS NOT LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. WINDS
MAINLY COME UP FROM THE SW IN LATE MORNING AND REMAIN THERE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LIGHT SE
WINDS EARLY ON, APPROX 15-17Z. VRB WINDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRI AT
KAVL ALSO.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN/RIVER VALLEY FOG OR LOW STRATUS
COULD RETURN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO
THE AREA.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JCW/MPR
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JCW
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