709
FXUS62 KGSP 142333
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE
INTO THE FOOTHILLS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF NOON EST FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING A LIGHT S TO SW WIND. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES, HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GOOD MIXING WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO MIX OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM TEMPS, SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE RH VALUES
AROUND 25%. THE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER.
WINDS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION. THESE FACTORS SHOULD
KEEP LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT DESPITE CLEAR SKIES. LOWS SHOULD END UP
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA. A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASING NW MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS TO DEVELOP. ANY LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT ENOUGH
FOR ANY PRECIP THOUGH DURING THIS PERIOD. LOW END GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE RISING TEMPS WITH A WARMING AIR
MASS, THE DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL. THIS SHOULD KEEP
RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1104 AM FRIDAY: BY TOMORROW NIGHT, AN AMPLIFIED POSITIVE TILT
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. SHALLOW
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN CONCERT WITH OROGRAPHIC
ASCENT SHOULD FOSTER AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. COLD ADVECTION
INTO THE MOUNTAINS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK, BUT IT WILL
BE A DIFFERENT STORY FARTHER EAST. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR RATHER WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. A FEW
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO
MONDAY, COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL
ALSO EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 25%. WEAK WINDS,
HOWEVER, WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE GREATER FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1122 AM FRIDAY: CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK ON TUESDAY, THE
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WHILE ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS
CALIFORNIA. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, THE LEAD UPPER LOW OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE EJECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE BROADER NEW ENGLAND TROUGH WHILE IT
SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS MAY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. PREDICTABILITY WANES
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBSEQUENT CLOSED AND CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ATTEMPTS TO FINALLY EJECT TOWARDS
THE GREAT PLAINS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER. TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW
EJECTION REMAINS ELUSIVE AT THIS TIME RANGE AND GUIDANCE OFTEN
STRUGGLES WITH SUCH PATTERNS. EVENTUALLY, SOME RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
PROBABLE TO RETURN LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE TIMING OF
SUCH REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR. MOSTLY SKC WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
SEEN. LIGHT MAINLY SW WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH PERIODS
OF CALM/VRB LIKELY; KAVL IS AN EXCEPTION WHERE WINDS FLIP TO NW FOR
A TIME EARLY MORNING TO MIDDAY. STRONGER SW WINDS DEVELOP MIDDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 18-22 KT LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOUNTAIN-WAVE
CIRRUS ALSO EXPECTED TO CREATE CEILINGS AT/ABOVE FL250 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SFC FLOW REMAINING SW BUT STRONGER W TO WNW FLOW
DEVELOPING ABOVE INVERSION AFTER 00Z SUN, LLWS CRITERIA LOOK TO
BE MET, AND MENTION WAS ADDED FOR KCLT AS A RESULT OF THE LONGER
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND GUSTY WINDS ALL LOCATIONS, LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WEAK COLD FRONT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JCW
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