653
FXUS62 KGSP 151058
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
558 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
MOVING OVER THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES, MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 551 AM EST SATURDAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY IS PICKING UP ON A
LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS BANKING UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER. TEMPERATURES VARY A LOT RIGHT NOW BASED
ON HOW MUCH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLED, BUT THE TYPICAL SHELTERED
AND DRAINAGE AREAS TANKED INTO THE 30S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION TO FILTER IN VIA SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT.
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF DIGGING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MID-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO A
GOOD COVERAGE OF OROGRAPHIC CIRRUS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. AT THE
SAME TIME, AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ENCROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD BE ENTERING THE NC/TN BORDER BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, LEADING
TO LOW-END GUSTS, ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BETTER LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL
FILTER IN AS A RESULT AND SHOULD RAISE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, RISING
DEWPOINTS WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY AS RH VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 25% AND MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WON'T BE AS DEEP
(TOP: ~850MB) COMPARED TO FRIDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE BEING
TRANSPORTED IN WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE ANTECEDENT DRY DOWNSLOPING
AIRMASS.
ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIATE A OFF AND
ON SHOWERS THROUGH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE 850MB
FLOW UPTICKS TO 30-40 KTS, BUT ANY STRONGER GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER,
WHILE REMAINING DRY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS 12-18 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, WITH THE
AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST, AND AN
UPSTREAM RIDGE THAT WILL STEADILY APPROACH THE MISS VALLEY. ONGOING
NW FLOW/UPSLOPE SHOWER CHANCES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
EVAPORATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS QUICKLY DEPLETES. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN POST FRONTAL REGIME THROUGHOUT SUNDAY, WHILE THE LOW
LEVELS WILL STEADILY DRY OUT FROM THE N AND NW. RH IS FORECAST TO
DIP BELOW 30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS (WHERE RH WILL
BE HIGHER), BOTH WINDS AND RH ARE FORECAST TO FALL JUST SHORT
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. FIRE DANGER WILL NEVERTHELESS BE ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS IN LIGHT OF ONGOING DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY, BUT VERY LOW/CRITICAL RH
OF LESS THAN 25% IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, TEMPS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD AS A CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1210 AM SATURDAY: WEAK LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF A CENTRAL
CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH, AND UPSTREAM OF CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS
THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER, A COMPACT UPPER LOW RIDING OVER THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD...OPENING UP AND DAMPENING OUT AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL
ACTIVATE THE BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TUE
THROUGH EARLY WED. HOWEVER, IT'S INCREASINGLY LOOKING AS IF THE
BETTER FORCING/MOISTURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE CWA, AND ONLY TOKEN,
MAINLY 20-30 POPS APPEAR WARRANTED ACROSS MAINLY THE NC MOUNTAINS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
UPPER RIDGING WILL OTHERWISE CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST AND BUILD
DOWNSTREAM OF WESTERN CONUS HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, RESULTING IN A RESUMPTION OF VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR OUR AREA FOR MUCH OF THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, THE
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS OFF THE EAST COAST IN ADVANCE OF
A REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS QUICKLY EJECTING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP FROM THE WEST ACROSS OUR CWA THU
NIGHT IN ANTICIPATION OF WARM FRONTAL ACTIVATION...WITH POPS FURTHER
INCREASING (MAINLY TO 30-50%) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT THE TERMINALS, BUT SEEING
SOME LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER.
MOST SITES HAVE MAINTAINED A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND, WHILE KAVL
SHOULD FLIP TO A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
THROUGH MID-MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS STARTING TO STREAM OVER THE
AREA SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER DAYBREAK AND STICK AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD. ELEVATED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH LOW END GUSTS LIKELY DURING PEAK
HEATING AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ADDED A MENTION OF LLWS AT ALL SITES AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AND
CRITERIA SHOULD BE MET INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY. SHOWERS
AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DID NOT MAKE ANY SHOWER MENTION AT KAVL AS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW. ANY MVFR OR LOWER CLOUD BASES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER.
OUTLOOK: GUSTY WINDS STICK AROUND FOR SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT. DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC
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