389
FXUS62 KGSP 170556
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY DRY AIR AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY WARM AGAIN DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WHICH
MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1200 AM EST MONDAY: DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STICKS
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY
DRY AIRMASS TO SET UP SHOP ACROSS THE CWFA. BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
STRUGGLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING GAP WINDS,
WHICH WILL KEEP OCCASIONAL LOW-END GUSTS. CAA FROM THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER WILL SETTLE IN AS OVERNIGHT LOWS END UP
A FEW TICKS BELOW NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE
DAYTIME PERIOD AS THE VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT RH
VALUES TO DIP BELOW 25%, EVEN INTO THE TEENS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE ELEVATED DESPITE LOWER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FULLY
RELAXES. WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE A FEW TICKS ABOVE
NORMAL AND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH FULLY SITUATES OVER THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE UP TO
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1215 PM MONDAY: A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH A COMPACT UPPER
LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE CORN BELT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. RESULTANT SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE ACTIVATION SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC. NEVERTHELESS, THE FARTHER SOUTH
TREND IN GUIDANCE WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN POPS TUE NIGHT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS (50-60%) AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF
THE ESCARPMENT (20-30%). ANY RAINFALL SHOULD IT OCCUR BE VERY
LIGHT...AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE, THE PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ESTABLISHMENT OF A BROAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, WHILE HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST. TEMPS WILL SOAR ON WED AS A RESULT, WITH MAXES
FORECAST TO BE ALMOST 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS S/SW RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ONE MORE
DAY WITH CRITICAL OR NEAR-CRITICAL RH IS EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON,
BUT RH SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING MID-WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY: A COMPLEX, QUITE AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW UPPER
AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A REX BLOCK BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WEST. TIMING OF SPEED MAXIMA EJECTING THROUGH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY WILL POTENTIALLY HAVE
MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK, BUT THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF
THE PATTERN...CONFIRMED BY RATHER DISPARATE SOLUTIONS REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE DETAILS AMONG THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL
MODELS. NEVERTHELESS, THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GENERAL 40-60%
CHANCES ADVERTISED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
TOKEN CHANCES ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN FORECAST
TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS MOST SITES WILL SEE GUSTS
FULLY SUBSIDE OUTSIDE OF KAVL. WINDS REMAIN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD TURN WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET,
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. KAVL MAINTAINS A
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WITH LOW-END GUSTS THROUGH MOST OF DAYTIME
PERIOD BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH SOME COVERAGE OF CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BY THE EVENING AND EARLY PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY ON THURSDAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY BRINGS SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS ON
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
WINDS WILL BE LOWER FOR TODAY, BUT RH VALUES WILL DIP BELOW 25% FOR
MOST OF THE AREA AS A VERY DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. INCREASED
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN AS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-WEEK. ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF CRITICAL RH IS LIKELY
TUESDAY, BUT MINIMUMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE IN THE 20-25% RANGE.
ALTHOUGH RH IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, VERY WARM DAYS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, SO SOME
DEGREE OF WILDFIRE RISK IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN LIGHT OF LOW 10-
HOUR FUEL MOISTURE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC
FIRE WEATHER...CAC/JDL
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