635
FXUS62 KGSP 190009
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
709 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA TONIGHT BRINGING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 640 PM TUESDAY: MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIP PROBS
OVERNIGHT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE,
MOSTLY TO THE TIMING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES.
OTHERWISE...A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS IT RIDES AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL ONLY
BRIEFLY FLATTEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC, AN ASSOCIATED
LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND REACH THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARM FRONT
THRU THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL ONLY BRING
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MIXED. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OVER THE TN VALLEY AND TRACK INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT. NO SFC-BASED CAPE IS EXPECTED, BUT A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
SMOKIES. OTHERWISE, SPOTTY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL WORK
INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY FIZZLE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE
PIEDMONT. THE LATEST NBM POPS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. LOWS
WILL BE 10-15 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE NC PIEDMONT IN THE
AFTN. BUT WESTERLY 850 MB FLOW COMBINED WITH WARM THICKNESSES
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE LATEST NBM
HIGHS ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF RECORDS AT KGSP AND KCLT
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). FORTUNATELY, DEWPTS WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND RH VALUES SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW
AS LAST FEW DAYS FOR FIRE WX CONCERNS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1205 PM EST TUESDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES NEAR
THE AREA IN THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ALONG IT OVER THE OH RIVER
VALLEY. MOISTURE BEGINS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY TO
THE MOUNTAINS THU NITE INTO FRI. LOWS WED NITE 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL RISE TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU NITE, EASILY
KEEPING ALL PRECIP LIQUID. HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THU
RISE TO AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY: AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPS
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKENING UPPER LOW CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY. ON TUESDAY, A DEEP UPPER LOW THAT STARTS THE PERIOD
OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION, MOVES INTO THE MID-SOUTH WHILE A SHORT
WAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE LOW MOVES OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST UPPER LOW CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. COOLER, DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN MOVES EAST TUESDAY
AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THIS MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS AROUND
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY, FALL TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. LOWS START OUT AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FALLING TO
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THERE IS A MAIN CONCERN, IT WOULD BE THE
STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW MOVING OVERHEAD IN AN INVERSION LAYER
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1000 TO 3000 FEET AGL LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS WILL MAINLY AFFECT KAVL WITH A LLWS CONDITION AFTER
ROUGHLY 06Z BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND UNUSUAL SW SFC
WINDS, BUT NOT THE TERMINALS EAST OF THE MTNS. STILL LOOKS LIKE
ONLY KAVL AND KHKY STAND MUCH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THEY STILL GET A PROB30 IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY MOVES PAST, WIND
SHOULD STAY SW UNTIL THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY CROSSES IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, ALBEIT WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT FRONT COULD BRING SHOWERS AND
RESTRICTIONS EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE FFC OFFICE, WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT FOR OUR NE GA COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU
6 PM THIS EVENING. RH VALUES EXPECTED TO DIP TO JUST BELOW 25%
FOR UP TO 4 HOURS THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND
5-10 MPH. THE FDS IN OUR NC COUNTIES LOOKS GOOD.
HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES STEADILY INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-
WEEK, BUT ONE MORE AFTERNOON OF NEAR CRITICAL RH IS LIKELY TODAY,
WITH MINIMUMS OF AROUND 25% EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL BE WELL BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS, BUT THE OCCASIONAL GUST OF
15-20 MPH IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. PER COLLABORATION WITH
LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND THE NC WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES,
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF OUR
NC ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW RH AND THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH RH SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN. THIS
COULD CREATE A LOW-END WILDFIRE RISK GIVEN LOW 10-HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1894 29 1951 65 1906 13 1903
KCLT 78 1942 38 1903 68 1906 14 2014
KGSP 78 1890 40 2000 63 1931 18 2014
1903
RECORDS FOR 11-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1942 20 1914 61 1985 9 1914
KCLT 79 1942 37 1914 61 1906 18 1951
KGSP 78 1942 38 1901 59 1985 19 1903
1896 1931
RECORDS FOR 11-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1994 24 1937 60 1931 11 1914
KCLT 78 1942 38 1937 64 1991 19 1914
1879
KGSP 78 1942 38 1914 64 1991 17 1914
RECORDS FOR 11-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1940 32 1937 57 1934 15 2008
1937
KCLT 76 2011 38 1929 65 1883 13 2008
KGSP 77 2011 38 1937 58 1953 18 1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...
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