147
FXUS62 KGSP 190550
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SETTLES IN TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE
TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1220 AM WEDNESDAY: THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN OHIO, WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SW FROM THERE...JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ATTENDANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
TS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KY THROUGH VA AND EXTREME NORTHERN
NC. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER TN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MAINLY
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH SOME
SHOWER POTENTIAL PERSISTING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS INCREASINGLY
WNW/UPSLOPE IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. OTHERWISE, S/SW SURFACE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH SURFACE
ANALYSIS DEPICTING AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
(SURFACE TDS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND TN
VALLEY). THUS, DEWPOINTS WILL STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH THE MORNING...LIKELY REACHING THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT
WILDFIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY WARM TODAY
UNDER INCREASING HEIGHTS AND W/SW FLOW, WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARM CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENCE OF VERY DRY FUELS WILL LEAD TO SOME DEGREE
OF ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK, ALBEIT NOTABLY LOWER THAN IN RECENT DAYS.
OTHERWISE, RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN SOME JEOPARDY TODAY...MAINLY
AT GSP AND CLT...WHERE FORECAST MAXES ARE WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF
DAILY RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE THAN 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1222 AM EST WEDNESDAY: ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL BE
DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, BUILDING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OF THE JET AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO
GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE IN RESPONSE. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THIS REGION, INFLUENCED BY AN
EMBEDDED BAROCLINIC ZONE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE
FIRST BOUTS OF DPVA TRAVERSES ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND SHIFTS EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT,
ALLOWING THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE VARY ON THE
MOUNT OF QPF RESPONSE, BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE BETTER
QPF AMOUNTS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
ARE PICKING UP ON A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY,
WHICH COULD HELP DRIVE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AS SOME OF THE PRECIP
MAY DEVELOP SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LEAD
TO AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES FLIRTING
WITH 80. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE, DEWPOINTS WILL
BE ELEVATED IN THE 50S. IN THIS CASE, OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL RUN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1246 AM EST WEDNESDAY: PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE IN
STORE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE THE SHORT TERM UPPER LOW
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AS DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FILTERS IN. A VIGOROUS CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF SHIFTING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THIS WEEKEND AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SENSIBLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENING,
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. LATEST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MID-MS VALLEY TUESDAY, BRINGING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TIME DISCREPANCIES AND THE OVERALL
SETUP IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT WILL BE A SYSTEM TO MONITOR IN
THE COMING DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP COMPARED TO THE SHORT TERM
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN, BUT WILL REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE, AS THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY, ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ONGOING, AND ACCELERATING WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE, LLWS IS FORECAST AT KHKY AND KAVL THROUGH AROUND
DAYBREAK. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD WANDER TOWARD
KAVL AND ESPECIALLY KHKY, THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO
THE NORTH, BUT A PROB30 FOR -SHRA APPEARS TO BE WARRANTED AT KHKY
BETWEEN 07-10Z. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR CONDITION AT KHKY, BUT
THAT IS UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, S/SW WINDS OF 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED
AT MOST SITES THIS MORNING, WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO LIGHT W/NW
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, ALBEIT WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER
CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1894 29 1951 65 1906 13 1903
KCLT 78 1942 38 1903 68 1906 14 2014
KGSP 78 1890 40 2000 63 1931 18 2014
1903
RECORDS FOR 11-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1942 20 1914 61 1985 9 1914
KCLT 79 1942 37 1914 61 1906 18 1951
KGSP 78 1942 38 1901 59 1985 19 1903
1896 1931
RECORDS FOR 11-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1994 24 1937 60 1931 11 1914
KCLT 78 1942 38 1937 64 1991 19 1914
1879
KGSP 78 1942 38 1914 64 1991 17 1914
RECORDS FOR 11-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1940 32 1937 57 1934 15 2008
1937
KCLT 76 2011 38 1929 65 1883 13 2008
KGSP 77 2011 38 1937 58 1953 18 1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC/RWH
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...
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