292
FXUS62 KGSP 191750
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1250 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS SETTLES INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM WEDNESDAY: AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A JET STREAK RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS
BRINGING PERIODS OF CIRRUS ATOP THE CWFA. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS CURRENTLY ABOUT HALFWAY THRU THE CWFA WILL PUSH
THRU AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ELEVATED DEWPTS AND SOME
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TONIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT,
AND MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
DROP IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY'S NEAR-RECORD HIGHS. THAT SAID, STILL 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM EST WEDNESDAY: ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN STORE WITH
UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA, STRONG RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND
CARIBBEAN, AND A PIECE OF ENERGY SLINGING OFF A CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE SW COAST GETTING PULLED EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE WAVETRAIN WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTH AND AN AREA OF DPVA PASSES THROUGH, LEAVING US IN THE WARM
SECTOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER DAY OF WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THE PIECE OF ENERGY/SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE TOWARD
THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THEN TO THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS AREN'T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0.5" ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LESS FURTHER EAST. EVEN
WARMER ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEAT
RECORDS AT OUR 3 CLIMATE SITES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST WEDNESDAY: WEAK RIDGING BUILDS UP THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE, WITH THE
SW CUTOFF LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. FOR OUR AREA,
QUIET AND A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POST-FRONTAL HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE, BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE PLAINS TO CANADA WILL OCCLUDE AS WE GO
INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH AN ELONGATED FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
MS/OH/TN VALLEYS. POPS RAMP UP AGAIN SLOWLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AMOUNTS, BUT AT LEAST
FOR A CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW IT LOOKS TO BE A WETTING RAIN.
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE EVENING,
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
TOGGLE WINDS FROM WSW TO NW, THEN NE OVERNIGHT AT THE PIEDMONT
SITES, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. SOME MOISTURE ATOP THE FRONT MAY
PRODUCE SOME MVFR STRATUS, MAINLY IN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED ON HOW MUCH, IF ANY,
LOW CLOUDS FORM. SO WILL ADVERTISE JUST FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS. THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SOME FOG AND IFR STRATUS
FORMING. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MVFR VSBY AND SCT LIFR CLOUDS
AROUND KAVL EARLY THU MORNING. WHATEVER CLOUDS DO FORM MAY TAKE
A LITTLE WHILE TO MIX OUT, BUT VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL TOGGLE BACK OUT OF THE SE AT KCLT IN THE AFTN,
AS THE FRONT BEGINS LIFTING BACK NORTH.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, ALBEIT WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER
CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1894 29 1951 65 1906 13 1903
KCLT 78 1942 38 1903 68 1906 14 2014
KGSP 78 1890 40 2000 63 1931 18 2014
1903
RECORDS FOR 11-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1942 20 1914 61 1985 9 1914
KCLT 79 1942 37 1914 61 1906 18 1951
KGSP 78 1942 38 1901 59 1985 19 1903
1896 1931
RECORDS FOR 11-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1994 24 1937 60 1931 11 1914
KCLT 78 1942 38 1937 64 1991 19 1914
1879
KGSP 78 1942 38 1914 64 1991 17 1914
RECORDS FOR 11-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1940 32 1937 57 1934 15 2008
1937
KCLT 76 2011 38 1929 65 1883 13 2008
KGSP 77 2011 38 1937 58 1953 18 1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...
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