764
FXUS62 KGSP 192354
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
654 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS SETTLES INTO OUR REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
LATE THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF OUR
AREA. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 640 PM WEDNESDAY: QUIET ON RADAR AT THIS HOUR, SO THE SMALL
AREA OF UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER THE SMOKIES WAS REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...WITH TEMPS HAVING WARMED UP ABOVE THE FCST
VALUES, SOME TRENDS WERE OFF, PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPSTATE AND
WRN PIEDMONT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND AWAY FROM FOG POTENTIAL
AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH A JET STREAK RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AXIS BRINGING
PERIODS OF CIRRUS ATOP THE CWFA. AT THE SFC, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT IS CURRENTLY ABOUT HALFWAY THRU THE CWFA WILL PUSH THRU AND
STALL TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ELEVATED DEWPTS AND SOME INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT,
AND MAY PRODUCE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
DROP IN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY'S NEAR-RECORD HIGHS. THAT SAID, STILL 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1200 PM EST WEDNESDAY: ACTIVE SHORT TERM PERIOD IN STORE WITH
UPPER LOW OVER SE CANADA, STRING RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND
CARIBBEAN, AND A PIECE OF ENERGY SLINGING OFF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
SW COAST GETTING PULLED EAST TOWARD THE PLAINS IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM JET. THE WAVETRAIN WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND AN AREA OF DPVA
PASSES THROUGH, LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
DAY OF WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PIECE OF ENERGY/SHORTWAVE
WILL SLIDE TOWARD THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THEN TO THE APPALACHIANS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE AREA
FRIDAY EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS AREN'T TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.5" ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LESS FURTHER EAST.
EVEN WARMER ON SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH, WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEAT RECORDS
AT OUR 3 CLIMATE SITES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST WEDNESDAY: WEAK RIDGING BUILDS UP THE PLAINS/MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE EXITING SHORT WAVE, WITH THE
SW CUTOFF LOW FINALLY EJECTING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. FOR OUR AREA,
QUIET AND A BIT COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POST-FRONTAL HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE, BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING FROM THE PLAINS TO CANADA WILL OCCLUDE AS WE GO
INTO THE WORK WEEK, WITH AN ELONGATED FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
MS/OH/TN VALLEYS. POPS RAMP UP AGAIN SLOWLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN QPF AMOUNTS, BUT AT LEAST
FOR A CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW IT LOOKS TO BE A WETTING RAIN.
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
FRONT SHOULD BRING THE WIND AROUND TO N OR NE BY LATE EVENING,
THOUGH SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5KT OR LESS. THE LATEST TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO MOVE AWAY FROM DEVELOPING ANY LOW CLOUD DECKS
IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, BUT THE LAMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
FOG POTENTIAL. AT THIS POINT, WITH PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS UPSTREAM,
THINK THE FOG POTENTIAL IS OVERDONE OUTSIDE THE MTNS AND THIS WAS
LEFT OUT. WILL KEEP THE MVFR VIS RESTRICTION AT KAVL. AS FOR LOW
CLOUDS, WILL KEEP THE FEW/SCT LOW STUFF FOR THE TIME BEING. WIND
MAY TOGGLE BACK TO LIGHT SE TO S IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT
MOVING BACK NORTHWARD. CLOUDS MAY INCREASE AS WELL. PRECIP WILL
APPROACH THE MTNS FROM THE WEST, BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE AT KAVL UNTIL
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ALBEIT WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FRI NIGHT AND SAT.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-19
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 75 1894 29 1951 65 1906 13 1903
KCLT 78 1942 38 1903 68 1906 14 2014
KGSP 78 1890 40 2000 63 1931 18 2014
1903
RECORDS FOR 11-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1942 20 1914 61 1985 9 1914
KCLT 79 1942 37 1914 61 1906 18 1951
KGSP 78 1942 38 1901 59 1985 19 1903
1896 1931
RECORDS FOR 11-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1994 24 1937 60 1931 11 1914
KCLT 78 1942 38 1937 64 1991 19 1914
1879
KGSP 78 1942 38 1914 64 1991 17 1914
RECORDS FOR 11-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1940 32 1937 57 1934 15 2008
1937
KCLT 76 2011 38 1929 65 1883 13 2008
KGSP 77 2011 38 1937 58 1953 18 1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
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