899
FXUS62 KGSP 201126
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
626 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE TO THE
WEST OF OUR AREA. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 620 AM THURSDAY: A SPLIT FLOW UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM...WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BRUSHING THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, WHILE THE FIRST IN A SERIES
OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES WILL CONSPIRE TO FLATTEN A RIDGE
JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PART OUR
OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH WEAK NE FLOW HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. RESULTANT WEAK DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FOG THIS MORNING, BUT PATCHY FOG,
INCLUDING LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA AND IN SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE AREAS EFFECTIVE UNTIL 10 AM.
OTHERWISE, LOWERING HEIGHTS/PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND WEAK NE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF YESTERDAY'S TEMPS TODAY,
BUT MAXES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. AS HEIGHTS
FALL TO OUR WEST TONIGHT, THE BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL BECOME ACTIVATED, WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OUR AREA AS A WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
WITH MOSTLY 40-50% CHANCES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF I-85.
ANY ACTUAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SPOTTY.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM IN THE ELEVATED DEWPOINT/
INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AND WARM SECTOR-ISH REGIME.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1223 AM EST THURSDAY: PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN STORE FOR
THE SHORT TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW GETTING EJECTED
WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET THAT'S DRAPED
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST. WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN
THE MIDST OF LIFTING NORTH AND PLACING THE CWFA INTO THE ASSOCIATED
WARM SECTOR. DPVA AND THE PRESENCE OF THE WARM FRONT MAY KEEP A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS TO START THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. AN
UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
THE OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY SOUTH/EAST OF I-85) MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
STICKING AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH CLEARING SKIES. RECORD WARMTH IS EXPECTED AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOW-LEVEL WAA AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
THICKNESSES IN PLACE. MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME PIEDMONT LOCATIONS REACHING 80. WITH THE
VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ELEVATED CLOUD COVER,
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO RUN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY,
WHILE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT. IN THIS CASE, OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY BE 8-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1243 AM EST THURSDAY: CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A
COOLER AND DRIER POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES END UP 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BETTER
RETURN FLOW ENTERS THE CWFA TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED
LOW OPENS UP AND EJECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS SHOWN OCCLUDING AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
DEVELOPS FROM ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. QPF RESPONSE VARIES AMONGST
MODEL GUIDANCE STARTING TUESDAY THROUGH D7, BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
AS POPS ELEVATE IN RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY AT
AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, A LIGHT NE WIND THAT HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST
TERMINALS NORTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL THIS MORNING, WHICH HAS ALLOWED
JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR TO LINGER TO KEEP FOG/LOW STRATUS AT BAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IN TERMS
OF THE TAF SITES IS AT KAND, WHICH IS CURRENTLY REPORTING MVFR
FOG. THIS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z OR SO. OTHERWISE, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF RESTRICTION AT KCLT AND ESPECIALLY
KAVL THIS MORNING, BUT THIS IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY, AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAND THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT NE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVATED AS A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY FROM LATE EVENING
ON. PROB30S FOR -SHRA ARE CARRIED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAND DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. LOW CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN ACROSS
THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY 12Z OR SO. CIGS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATER IN THE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, ALBEIT
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW STRATUS. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1942 20 1914 61 1985 9 1914
KCLT 79 1942 37 1914 61 1906 18 1951
KGSP 78 1942 38 1901 59 1985 19 1903
1896 1931
RECORDS FOR 11-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1994 24 1937 60 1931 11 1914
KCLT 78 1942 38 1937 64 1991 19 1914
1879
KGSP 78 1942 38 1914 64 1991 17 1914
RECORDS FOR 11-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1940 32 1937 57 1934 15 2008
1937
KCLT 76 2011 38 1929 65 1883 13 2008
KGSP 77 2011 38 1937 58 1953 18 1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL
CLIMATE...
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