590
FXUS62 KGSP 201747
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1247 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM THURSDAY: A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THRU FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
OUT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY,
WHILE A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED 500 MB TROUGH IS EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNER REGION
AND WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS LOW
PRES SYSTEM ORGANIZES, THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL ACTIVATE AS A WARM
FRONT AND START LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT. MOISTURE AT
VARYING LEVELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LAYERS OF CLOUDINESS. DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SHOWERS, WITH
SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY WORKING EAST INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. MUCAPE IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO. OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK, SO QPF IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE OF THE RAIN SURVIVING
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MOST OF THE PIEDMONT LIKELY JUST SEEING
SPRINKLES AT MOST. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY,
WITH LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT SOMEWHAT. AS THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTING TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY, SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FCST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS MAY START TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
BY MID TO LATE AFTN. BUT OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1102 AM EST THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT TO FIND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. SCATTERED RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY EVENING, AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ARRIVES IN THE CAROLINAS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND A FEW LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
UPDRAFTS WON'T BE STRONG...AND PROFILES LOOK DRY ENOUGH IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO LIMIT MORE OF A SEVERE RISK SHOULD THUNDER DEVELOP.
DRYING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AS BROAD EXTENSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS
DEPICTED REMAINING TO OUR NORTH; SO ALTHOUGH THERE'S SOME COOLING
EXPECTED, WE AREN'T LOOKING AT ANY ESPECIALLY COLD NIGHTS COMING
UP THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOWS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1117 AM EST THURSDAY: PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE IN
THE LONG RANGE, WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON MONDAY, LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST, AND BEING FOLLOWED
THEREAFTER BY A ROBUST TROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES AREN'T IN GREAT AGREEMENT YET, BUT TEND TO FAVOR A
PRECIPITATION-LESS FORECAST WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, ALBEIT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SECOND SYSTEM, HOWEVER,
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT CERTAINLY
BY WEDNESDAY. CONTINGENT ON TIMING, THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EMBEDDED THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SEVERE PROSPECTS
DON'T LOOK GREAT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY USHER IN
A COLDER AIR MASS, BRINGING LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: A THIN MVFR STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOPED OVER
KCLT AT TIME OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, BUT IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT
FAIRLY QUICKLY PER THE SATELLITE TRENDS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT,
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
PRODUCING A POSSIBLE MVFR OR EVEN IFR STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED, BUT SEEMS
TO BE TRENDING TOWARD AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL THE
PIEDMONT TAF SITES. THE LOW CIGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
EVENING, BUT STRUGGLE TO SURVIVE AS THEY TRACK EAST. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN LOW, BUT WILL KEEP PROB30 AT ALL SITES FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT, GENERALLY FAVORING A S TO SW DIRECTION THRU THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER CHANCES
AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1942 20 1914 61 1985 9 1914
KCLT 79 1942 37 1914 61 1906 18 1951
KGSP 78 1942 38 1901 59 1985 19 1903
1896 1931
RECORDS FOR 11-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1994 24 1937 60 1931 11 1914
KCLT 78 1942 38 1937 64 1991 19 1914
1879
KGSP 78 1942 38 1914 64 1991 17 1914
RECORDS FOR 11-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1940 32 1937 57 1934 15 2008
1937
KCLT 76 2011 38 1929 65 1883 13 2008
KGSP 77 2011 38 1937 58 1953 18 1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK
CLIMATE...
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