802
FXUS62 KGSP 202358
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO ORGANIZE TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA.
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 635 PM THURSDAY: THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE REACTIVATED WARM FRONT HAD REACHED THE
TN/NC BORDER, THOUGH IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT SOME OF WHAT IS SEEN
ON RADAR ON THE LEADING EDGE WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND. STILL,
THE RADAR TREND WAS USED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PRECIP
PROBS GOING FORWARD THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT, WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THRU FRIDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED OUT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY, WHILE A 1024 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH IS
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNER REGION AND WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM ORGANIZES, THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL ACTIVATE AS A WARM FRONT AND START LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE CWFA TONIGHT. MOISTURE AT VARYING LEVELS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN LAYERS OF CLOUDINESS. DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY SHOWERS, WITH SOME OF THAT ACTIVITY
WORKING EAST INTO THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MUCAPE IS MARGINAL
FOR THUNDER CHANCES, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO. OVERALL
FORCING LOOKS WEAK, SO QPF IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY. GUIDANCE
SHOWS LITTLE OF THE RAIN SURVIVING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
MOST OF THE PIEDMONT LIKELY JUST SEEING SPRINKLES AT MOST. LOWS
WILL BE ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY,
WITH LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT SOMEWHAT. AS THE CENTER OF LOW
PRESSURE STARTING TO DRIFT EAST INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY, SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS FCST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY. SOME SHOWERS MAY START TO WORK INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
BY MID TO LATE AFTN. BUT OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS FOR THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1102 AM EST THURSDAY: NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT TO FIND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. SCATTERED RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY EVENING, AS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ARRIVES IN THE CAROLINAS. AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, SOME MODEST INSTABILITY MAY
DEVELOP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND A FEW LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF EMBEDDED THUNDER.
UPDRAFTS WON'T BE STRONG...AND PROFILES LOOK DRY ENOUGH IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO LIMIT MORE OF A SEVERE RISK SHOULD THUNDER DEVELOP.
DRYING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY SATURDAY NIGHT, AS BROAD EXTENSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE BETTER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS
DEPICTED REMAINING TO OUR NORTH; SO ALTHOUGH THERE'S SOME COOLING
EXPECTED, WE AREN'T LOOKING AT ANY ESPECIALLY COLD NIGHTS COMING
UP THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOWS LIKELY STAYING IN THE LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1117 AM EST THURSDAY: PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE IN
THE LONG RANGE, WITH AN UPPER LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON MONDAY, LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST, AND BEING FOLLOWED
THEREAFTER BY A ROBUST TROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES AREN'T IN GREAT AGREEMENT YET, BUT TEND TO FAVOR A
PRECIPITATION-LESS FORECAST WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, ALBEIT AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SECOND SYSTEM, HOWEVER,
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME RAINFALL AS EARLY AS TUESDAY, BUT CERTAINLY
BY WEDNESDAY. CONTINGENT ON TIMING, THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF EMBEDDED THUNDER AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BUT LIKE THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SEVERE PROSPECTS
DON'T LOOK GREAT. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY USHER IN
A COLDER AIR MASS, BRINGING LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: STARTING OUT VFR AT ALL TERMINALS, AND
THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE, AN
AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN EAST TN WILL MOVE INTO THE NC MTNS
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND HELP TO BRING IN A LOW CLOUD CEILING,
FIRST AT KAVL, BUT THEN SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH ACTIVATES AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP PROBS
AREN'T PARTICULARLY GREAT AND PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT, SO WE HAVE
LEANED TOWARD A PROB30 OUTSIDE THE MTNS BUT RETAINED A TEMPO FOR
KAVL. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH DROPPING THE CEILING DOWN
THRU THE MVFR CATEGORIES AND THE TAFS REFLECT THAT STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT, BUT THIS IS MAINLY SHORT-LIVED AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES
NORTHWARD. ONCE THAT HAPPENS IN THE LATE MORNING, CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR AND WIND WILL COME BACK AROUND FROM THE SW. THERE
COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP ARRIVING FROM THE WEST VERY LATE
IN THE PERIOD, BUT THAT WAS LEFT OUT FOR THE TIME BEING AS THE
TIMING COULD EASILY SLIP PAST 00Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWER CHANCES
AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORDS FOR 11-20
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1942 20 1914 61 1985 9 1914
KCLT 79 1942 37 1914 61 1906 18 1951
KGSP 78 1942 38 1901 59 1985 19 1903
1896 1931
RECORDS FOR 11-21
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 76 1994 24 1937 60 1931 11 1914
KCLT 78 1942 38 1937 64 1991 19 1914
1879
KGSP 78 1942 38 1914 64 1991 17 1914
RECORDS FOR 11-22
MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE
STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW
------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ----------
KAVL 74 1940 32 1937 57 1934 15 2008
1937
KCLT 76 2011 38 1929 65 1883 13 2008
KGSP 77 2011 38 1937 58 1953 18 1914
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...
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