866
FXUS62 KGSP 231028
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
528 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY BUT MILD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A
MOIST COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME,
USHERING IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1101 PM SATURDAY: PERSISTENT SPLIT FLOW REGIME CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH A BELT OF
PERTURBED NORTHERN STREAM WESTERLIES DRAPED FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. FARTHER SOUTH, A LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS QUICKLY SLIDING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH A TRAILING CUTOFF CLOSED UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES HAS
HELPED PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY AND COOL
ADVECTION USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. WHILE COOLER, TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE A GOOD BIT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE NOVEMBER, JUST NOT
CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST SOME DEGREE OF WIND WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WEAKLY MIXED TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S BENEATH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES IN THE PRESENCE OF CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO
MID 40S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF LOW 30S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN FAVORED COOL DRAINAGE AREAS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1220 AM EST SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY SLIDES
EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FROM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE BUT INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED IN THE DEVELOPING
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A SHORT WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A DAMPENING UPPER LOW MOVING BY TO OUR
NORTH CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE EXPECTED, BRINGING CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE AREA. THERE COULD BE A WEAK CAD DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND THE PRECIP MOVES IN. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND AND UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. THIS PUSHES THE FRONT INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
AREA STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT THE GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO
BE TRENDING TO A LATER WEDNESDAY FROPA. AS A RESULT, THE GUIDANCE
ALL NOW SHOW SBCAPE INTO THE 500 J/KG RANGE, WHICH IS NEAR THE
MUCAPE VALUES AND HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE SHOWED. ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS INCREASE, ALTHOUGH THEY DO KEEP THE
CHANCE OF SBCAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG ON THE LOW SIDE. BULK SHEAR
INCREASES INTO THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COULD INDICATE AND
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
OBVIOUSLY, THIS WILL BE MONITORED AS THE DAY APPROACHES. WITH THE
FORCING, DEEP MOISTURE, AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. THE DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL HELP LIMIT THE FLOOD
THREAT, WHICH WILL ALSO BE WATCHED.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHERE THE CAD
DEVELOPS AND POTENTIALLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE CAD
OR IF THE CAD DOESN'T DEVELOP. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, KEEPING THE PRECIP ALL LIQUID. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
COULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, DEPENDING ON FRONTAL AND
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM EST SUNDAY: HEIGHTS FALL THURSDAY AS A SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND ACROSS THE AREA. A FLAT RIDGE
MOVES IN FRIDAY THEN MOVES EAST SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN MOVES EAST SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY AT THIS TIME EVEN AS A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
AND CLOUDS INCREASE. LOWS THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS AND HIGHS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW PATCHES OF MID-LEVEL STRATUS ARE
APPARENT THIS MORNING, BUT CEILINGS REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THAT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPSTATE SITES TO SEE A BRIEF SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
OUTLOOK: EXPECT DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THRU MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS EACH MORNING. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS, RETURN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS A MOIST COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...TW
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