884
FXUS62 KGSP 051736
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1236 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRIER START TO THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM EST FRIDAY:
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DRY UP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, OTHER
THAN SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THEREFORE, ALL ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE
COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CONTINUED CLOUDINESS.
EXPECT DRY BUT CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND, GUIDANCE IS AT
ODDS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY DENSE FOG TONIGHT. GIVEN THAT THE
WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE TO NO TOP DOWN EROSION WHICH
WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE TO DENSE FOG. THEREFORE, LOW CLOUDS MAY BE
MORE LIKELY. LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND LOW END LIGHT RAIN CHANCES,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING. THE
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TAKING THE LIFT WITH
IT. IN FACT, LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MAY EVEN
SCATTER OUT. THIS COULD HELP ERODE THE WEDGE IF IT OCCURRED EARLY
ENOUGH IN THE DAY. FOR NOW, HAVE HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, BUT THIS COULD GO EITHER WAY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-85.
2) TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
3) ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH SOME WINTRY TYPES POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AS OF 1205 PM EST FRIDAY: PICKING UP ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE DRIER AS THE BETTER MOISTURE REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH. OFF
TO THE WEST, A SHORTWAVE MAKES A RUN FOR THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLDER AIR OFF TO THE NORTH NOT REACHING THE AREA
IN TIME FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO CREATE TOO MUCH OF A WINTER MIX ISSUE.
HOWEVER, SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE SLOW DOWN, THIS COULD INCREASE THE
PROBABILITY OF LIGHT WINTER WEATHER, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. AT
THIS TIME, THERE IS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE THAT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AT LEAST 0.01 INCH OF SNOW.
ELSEWHERE, IT'S ZERO AS TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO BE TOO WARM TO
SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP. CURRENT FORECASTED SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A
VERTICAL PROFILE THAT SUPPORTS A MORE SNOW/RAIN MIX IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND NEAR ZERO FOR ANY ICE. ALL IN ALL, THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM ANY
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER. THIS AGAIN IS DEPENDENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE. AFTER THE
COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVES ON MONDAY, A SURFACE HIGH SETS UP AND
EXTENDS FURTHER NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT NE SURFACE WINDS OCCUR, CREATING A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION. THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON
THE CWA AS THE DRIER AIR MASS THAT MOVES IN, KEEPS PRECIP AWAY AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM AND INTO THE NEXT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND DIP WITH THE POTENTIAL CAD ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) WINDS COULD INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
2) A POTENTIAL COLD FRONT COULD BRING COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
3) MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AS OF 1210 PM EST FRIDAY: AFTER MONDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SHOWS A QUIETER PERIOD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. ONCE THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND STICKS AROUND.
A STRONG UPPER LOW CHURNS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. NO
PRECIP CHANCES, BUT THIS COULD INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A THIS TIME, THERE IS ABOUT A 40-50% CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BEING 6 DAYS OUT, THIS WILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER LOW
MOVES. IF IT DROPS FURTHER SOUTH, THE WIND IS LIKELY TO INCREASE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
A SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25%) OF PRECIP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS A HINT IN GUIDANCE OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL
COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING. NOT MUCH TO BE
SAID ABOUT THE SYSTEM AS IT'S TOO FAR OUT ON THE HORIZON TO GATHER
MUCH OF THE DETAILS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, EXPECT DAILY HIGHS TO BE
NEAR NORMAL FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: IFR CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY MVFR TO EVEN IFR
VSBY WILL BE SEEN AT KCLT AND KHKY. CIGS FALL TO LIFR CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH MORE STEADY IFR VSBY
DEVELOPING. THAT SAID, THE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT, SO VSBY COULD RANGE FROM LIFR TO VFR. NE WIND THIS
AFTERNOON, S AT KAVL, BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM BY EVENING.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WITH CIGS
RISING TO MVFR BY NOON. LIGHT SW WIND DEVELOPS AS WELL FOR ALL BUT
KAVL WHERE LIGHT N WIND EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRYING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD BACK OVER THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RWH
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