607
FXUS62 KGSP 071815
AFDGSP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND BRINGS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT A DRY AND
CHILLY TUESDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THEN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY AND WARMER (BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL) TODAY DESPITE
CLOUD COVER STICKING AROUND.
SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN SC UPSTATE AND SOUTHERN
NC PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES OUT OF THE WEST. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AROUND THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE
WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT WILL STILL END UP A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY
COUNTY AS WELL AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FEET IN YANCEY AND MITCHELL
COUNTIES FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SFC HIGH
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 3,500
FEET IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS, SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 3.5 INCHES
ABOVE 3,500 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THUS, THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AVERY COUNTY AS WELL
AS ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3,500 FT IN YANCEY AND MITCHELL COUNTIES FROM 1
AM MONDAY TO 1 AM TUESDAY. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS IN MITCHELL AND
YANCEY COUNTIES COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATIONS ABOVE
3,500 FT IN THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS WILL SEE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL FROM A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH UP TO 1.5
INCHES. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS IN THE SMOKIES ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER
COULD SEE TOTALS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REST OF THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SO MAINLY A COLD
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY BLOW DOWN THE VALLEYS AN/OR SOME WET-BULBING MAY OCCUR EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-40) WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME BRIEF SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
RAIN AT TIMES. IT'S NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR WET-BULBING
TO OCCUR SOUTH OF I-40 IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT AS
SOME OF THE CAMS AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE DEPICT THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
WITH THE COLD AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
CONFIDENCE ON SNOW MAKING IT THAT FAR SOUTH REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IF WET-BULBING DOES OCCUR SO OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME AS ANY SNOW THAT FALLS WILL BE WELL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (LESS THAN AN INCH). WITH CLOUD COVER
LINGERING THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY, LOWS WILL END UP A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO BOTH CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP, ENDING UP ~10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
1) LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
2) BREEZY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AS OF 1205 PM EST SUNDAY: MONDAY NIGHT, THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND
LINGERING SNOWFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THOUGH THE
BULK OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW BURSTS OF FLAKES
STILL OCCURRING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NC
PIEDMONT. THE COLDER AIR KEEPS SNOW PROBABILITIES IN THIS AREA
AROUND 10-20% THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. ONCE THE WINTER MIX TAPERS
OFF, GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SIGNAL INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THE
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CHURNS OVER CANADA
AND DIPS SOUTHWARD, CREATING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT CLOSER TO
THE CWA. CURRENTLY, THERE IS ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35 MPH AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WILL LIKELY CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW DIPS. IF IT
DROPS FURTHER SOUTH, THE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE. AT THIS TIME,
WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL BEFORE REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.
2) A POTENTIAL COLDER PERIOD NEXT WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING
AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AS OF 1215 PM EST SUNDAY: PICKING UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CHURNS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, BRINGING A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
EVEN DRIER IN TERMS OF PRECIP, SO A SPOTTY POP OF 15-20% THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANY GUSTY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM LINES UP FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS A STRENGTHENING TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND BRINGS NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS A TYPICAL DEEP
WINTER PATTERN OCCURRING MUCH EARLIER IN THE SEASON, WHICH CAN
SIGNAL FOR A POTENTIAL NW SNOW EVENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER, A
LOT CAN AND WILL CHANGE FROM NOW THROUGH THE POTENTIAL EVENT.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER AS THE STRONG CP AIRMASS BREAKS
CONTAINMENT FROM THE NORTH AND PLUNGES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS. THE POTENTIAL COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS RETAINED ONCE THE
COLD, DRY AIR ARRIVES. SO FAR, GUIDANCE IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD A
DRIER FRONT WITH REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES. IT REMAINS TOO FAR OUT ON
THE HORIZON TO GATHER MUCH OF THE DETAILS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
EXPECT DAILY HIGHS TO BE NEAR NORMAL UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMES THROUGH, DIPPING TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE: AS EXPECTED, IMPROVEMENT REGARDING
RESTRICTIONS HAS BEEN SLOW TODAY. STILL SEEING ANYWHERE FROM VFR TO
LIFR ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AS OF 18Z. SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST IFR EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE KAVL SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
RESTRICTIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SLOW TO LIFT MONDAY SO LEANED ON THE
MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WENT WITH PREVAILING RA
ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING RAIN CHANCES.
COULD NOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME -SN BLOWING DOWN THE VALLEY AT KAVL
MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AND SOME BRIEF -SN AT KHKY TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E/SE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING CALM TO LIGHT AND VRB THIS EVENING INTO
DAYBREAK MONDAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NW AT KAVL OVERNIGHT
BEFORE TOGGLING NE LATE MONDAY MORNING/EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE N/NNE AROUND DAYBREAK
MONDAY, TOGGLING MORE NE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE SC TERMINALS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, BUT THE NC TERMINALS MAY SEE PRECIP LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIONS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NW FLOW PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE NC/TN BORDER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD LINGER ELSEWHERE.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR NCZ033-049-050.
SC...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...AR
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